Evolution Of International Trade Pattern And Prediction Of Potential Relationship From The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

With the development of economic globalization,trade integration and production decentralization,trade in intermediate products has prevailed,which has promoted the prosperity and development of international trade and global value chains.However,late-developing countries like China are now facing the double attack of "high-end blockade" and "low-end lock-in",and the construction of global value chains has accelerated the transmission speed of the crisis.Therefore,it is urgent to reconstruct the global value chain and the world trade pattern.In this context,grasping the development direction of the world trade pattern and predicting the future trend of the trade situation are crucial for countries to resume trade in the post-epidemic era.At the same time,traditional trade accounting methods cannot analyze the trade gains of countries participating in global value chains,and value-added trade accounting methods can better reflect the true situation of current international trade.Therefore,this article discusses the evolution and future development of international trade patterns from the perspective of global value chains.This paper uses the multi-regional input-output data of the Eora database from 1995 to 2015,and according to the WWZ value-added trade decomposition method,selects representative domestic value-added(DVA)and foreign value-added(FVA)to construct a directed weighted network.This paper uses a complex network analysis method to show the evolution of the value-added trade pattern from the macro,meso,and micro levels,and further analyze the driving forces that promote the evolution of the trade pattern.However,the evolution of the past trade pattern can only grasp part of the trade development trend,and cannot accurately predict the development direction of the specific trade relationship.In addition,this paper also predicts the potential trade relations in the existing network based on the structural characteristics of network similarity.The research results show that:(1)At the macro level,the value-added trade network is showing an expansion trend,with close links between economies and a high degree of reciprocity,the value-added trade network does not completely conform to the small world network,and it will turn to the rule network at a certain stage of development.(2)At the micro level,European and American countries are deeply involved in the global value chain and have a high centrality.As a representative of developing countries,China’s position in the global value chain has been rising.(3)At the meso level,both the domestic value-added trade network(DVA)and the foreign value-added trade network(FVA)eventually formed the pattern of"Asia-Pacific" trade community centered on China,the "American" trade community centered on the United States,and the "European-African trade community centered on Germany.(4)From the analysis of influencing factors,the formation and evolution of value-added trade networks are affected by endogenous mechanisms,such as transitivity,asymmetry,delayed reciprocity,and stability.In addition,exogenous mechanisms such as land borders,geographic distance and colonial relations,FTA networks,economic development levels,and population sizes also affect the formation of value-added trade networks.(5)From the link prediction results,in the DVA network,Chinese Hong Kong-Russia is most likely to form trade in the future;in the FVA network,Spain-Malaysia is the most likely to form.Based on the above research results,this article puts forward corresponding suggestions:Firstly,developing countries should actively participate in global value chains,and move up the value chain;secondly,under the three-legged trade structure,the United States,China,and Germany should give full play to their leadership roles to drive the common development of the countries in the community and achieve balanced development of global trade;third,pay attention to the influence of internal and external mechanisms on promoting the development of international trade,strengthen regional cooperation,and achieve high-level opening to the outside world;Finally,on the basis of predicting future trade relations,grasp the current trade pattern and future trade development trends,actively adjust trade policies and the layout of competition and cooperation,promote the establishment of new rules,new orders,and new patterns.