Evolution Of Cobalt International Trade And Potential Trade Relationship

Cobalt is an important metal strategic mineral resource,which plays an important role in the development of national emerging strategic industries.As it is more and more widely used in electronics,new energy and other industries,the demand for cobalt resources in various countries is increasing.However,due to the uneven distribution of cobalt resources,the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies the competition between cobalt importers and exporters.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the potential trade relationship of cobalt resources for the future trade development trend.Based on the import and export trade data from 2005 to 2021,the complex network method,core-edge model and link prediction model are used to analyze the evolution and future potential competition pattern of international trade in cobalt ore.The main research work and innovative achievements are as follows:Based on the core degree and three central indicators,trading countries are divided into four types: core trading countries,major trading countries,general trading countries and marginal trading countries.a core-periphery model is established to measure the comprehensive strength and status of cobalt ore international trading countries,and the overall structural characteristics and evolution of cobalt international trading network are analyzed.The research shows that the instability of the international trade network is increasing,the international trade competition of cobalt is becoming more and more fierce in the future,and a few countries control most of the cobalt ore trade.Through the evolution of the core trading countries,we find that:(1)China’s typical import and export leading core,(2)the United States has gradually transformed into an import-oriented core,and(3)the Netherlands,Britain and Germany have grown into the transitional core.The main body of competition and cooperation has gradually become a small number of major import and export countries of cobalt.On the basis of mineral competition intensity index,the competition intensity index of cobalt international trade is redefined.At the same time,considering that a single perspective of import competition has been unable to fully predict the future cobalt trade competition pattern.On this basis,the import competition network and export competition network of international cobalt trade are constructed,and the competition trend of global cobalt trade is studied from two aspects of import and export.It is found that the core of international cobalt import competition has shifted from Asia to Europe,while the core of export competition of international cobalt trade has shifted from Africa to Asia,Africa and Asia and Europe.Countries with geographical advantages such as coasts,ports and close to cobalt mining areas will have greater trade options and competitive development potential.The link prediction model is used to predict the potential trade of cobalt.The four CN,AA,RA,PA algorithms calculate the test set and the non-existent link relation set respectively.When α 1 1,that is,the network type is directed weighted network PA algorithm has the highest AUC score.The forecast results are compared with the actual trade situation,and the timeliness and persistence of the forecast link are discussed.From 2010 to 2020,46 pairs of potential trade relationships were successfully predicted,with a forecast success rate of 80.7%.Among them,23 pairs were converted to actual trade within one year,28 pairs were converted to actual trade within 2 years,and 38 pairs were converted to actual trade within 3 years,accounting for 82.6% of the successfully predicted trade relations.Through the division of trade roles,this paper analyzes the impact of income level,regional distribution,whether it is a net exporter and whether there has been a trade relationship on the success rate of connection,thus exploring the five laws of establishing potential trade links.Finally,based on a further analysis of the ten major links predicted in 2021,it is found that Austria and the United Kingdom,Belgium and the United Kingdom scored the highest,followed by Germany and Spain,South Korea and Spain,Australia and the United States,while Congo and the United Kingdom scored the worst.In order to improve China’s initiative and voice in the future cobalt resources trade and ensure the security of cobalt resources supply,three policy suggestions are put forward,namely,to establish a dynamic prediction mechanism of global cobalt resources trade relations;to promote the establishment of trade relations with key potential trading partners;to pay close attention to the potential competitors of cobalt resources and improve the ability of trade risk prevention.