| After entering the 21st century,the domestic economic environment has undergone great changes.With the gradual deepening of reform,competition has become more and more intense in various fields of the domestic economy.In recent years,the news of listed companies being implemented by ST and delisting is not uncommon.More and more listed companies are facing financial crisis.The prediction of the company’s financial crisis has also become a topic of concern from all walks of life.The occurrence of financial crisis in the vast majority of companies will have a process,the company’s financial situation does not suddenly deteriorate.And how to effectively monitor and warn the company’s financial status,and nip it in the bud before the financial crisis really comes,is a problem that all stakeholders,including the company,pay attention to.Therefore,it is very important to construct an early warning model of financial crisis.In this paper,a penalty function is added on the basis of logistic regression to construct a penalty logistic regression model,and the optimal λ parameter value is selected to establish a penalty logistic financial crisis early warning model.Comparing the prediction accuracy of the logistic regression model and the three penalized logistic regression models,it is concluded that the MCP penalized logistic regression model has the highest prediction accuracy.MCP finally retained fifteen financial indicators in the model by variable selecting,and established a Cox model with these fifteen financial indicators to analyze the specific impact of each financial indicator on the financial crisis of listed companies.The regression results show that net profit,cash flow from operating activities/ Debt,capital project scale maintenance rate,and growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company are significant protective factors,that is,the increase of these four financial indicators will significantly reduce the risk of financial crisis.Assetliability ratio and accounts receivable turnover ratio are significant risk factors,that is,the increase of these two financial indicators will significantly increase the risk of financial crisis.Studying the changes of the above six financial indicators before and during the financial crisis of the listed company,it is found that when the company is in financial crisis,the growth rate of net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company will be significantly reduced,and the assets and liabilities will be significantly reduced.rate will increase significantly. |
