The Impact Of Population Size And Structure On Urban Technological Innovation From A Spatial Perspective

City is the collection carrier of implementing innovation strategy.The level of urban innovation ability determines the urban economic development sustainability,its position in building an innovative country and its core competitiveness in the global urban competition.Improving the urban innovation ability is an important link for China to implement the innovation-driven strategy,build an innovative country and participate in global competition.Population is one of the main factors that affect urban innovation.With the emergence of "fewer children","urbanization" and "popularization of higher education",the population size and structure of Chinese cities have undergone great changes.Studying the impact of population size and population structure changes on urban innovation is of important theoretical and practical significance to the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy in China.Based on the theoretical analysis and evolution analysis of main variables,with the data of 226 cities from2009-2019,fixed effect model,space dubin model to analyze the relationship between population structure,urban and rural structure and urban innovation,study the influence of population size and population structure on urban technological innovation,and use the relationship between variables for further study.According to the research conclusion,policy suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of preventing population size from shrinking sharply,optimizing urban and rural population structure and cultural structure.Theoretical analysis shows that the population size through agglomeration effect and scale effect to promote urban technology innovation,population urban structure by influence agglomeration human capital,promote infrastructure construction and industrial upgrading to promote urban technology innovation,and population cultural structure through innovation generation and diffusion and increase the knowledge stock to promote urban innovation.The conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,from the perspective of population size,the increase of population size significantly promotes the urban technological innovation,and has a positive spillover effect on the technological innovation of surrounding cities.This result is basically the same in the whole country,north and south,east,central and western China.Second,from the perspective of population and cultural structure,the optimization of cultural structure is conducive to local technological innovation as well as technological innovation of surrounding cities.Third,from the perspective of population and urban-rural structure,the improvement of urbanization level can generally promote urban technological innovation,but it will inhibit the technological innovation of surrounding cities.In the subsample regression,the south and east and Midwest had similar results to the whole country.However,the impact of urbanization in northern China on the local technological innovation and adjacent cities is not significant.Fourth,from the perspective of the interactive impact of population size and population structure on urban technological innovation,the higher the urbanization level,the stronger the effect of population size on urban technological innovation,while in places with rich human capital,the greater the positive impact of urbanization on urban technological innovation.According to the previous conclusion,this paper makes the following three policy suggestions: optimizing fertility policy,construct fertility support system,preventing large population shrinkage,reforming urban dual household registration system,improving urban human education system by increasing education investment,reforming higher education and vocational education and promoting the equalization of basic public services.