Study On The Coupled And Coordinated Development Of Water-Energy-Food And The Driving Forces In The Arid And Semi-Arid Regions Of Central And High Latitudes Of Eurasia

Water,energy and food(WEF),as the basic and supporting material resources for human survival and development,have not only become a "resource shortage" that increasingly constrains the development of modern human society due to limited resources and increasing demand,but also become an important factor and focus of concern for sustainable development because of the complex "nexus" that exists between the three,and the impact and manifestation of which varies from region to region.The arid and semi-arid regions in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia have a high concentration of population and are the main food and energy production and supply areas in the world,as well as the key areas of the "One Belt,One Road".However,the region as a whole is characterized by aridity and low rainfall,fragile and less resilient ecosystems,and a more sensitive and dramatic response to global change.In particular,the WEF and its synergy and coupling relationship not only profoundly affect the sustainable development of the region and the smooth implementation of the "One Belt,One Road",but also profoundly influence the achievement of the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals,and thus the analysis of the coupled and coordinated development of the WEF and its driving force is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance.This study was conducted with a focus on the following four aspects.Firstly,a background analysis of the natural and socio-economic conditions,interaction mechanism of WEF three subsystems and the evolutionary dynamics of the WEF subsystems in the region from 1997-2017 was undertaken.Secondly,based on the above research,a system of WEF coupled and coordinated development indicators was constructed and a coupled and coordinated degree model was applied to analyze the development level,integrated development level,coupling degree and coupled and coordinated degree of the WEF subsystems in 16 countries in the region over time and space.Furthermore,the Human Development Index was adopted to analyze the relationship between the coupled and coordinated development of the WEF and the level of human development.In addition,by means of Partial Least Squares Method,an analytical model of the drivers of WEF coupling coordination was constructed and the main drivers of coupling coordination in each country were explored.Finally,a grey projection GM(1,1)model was applied to predict the trends of WEF coupling and coordination in the region in 2022 and 2027,and related countermeasures were also recommended.It was revealed that:1.The interactions between the subsystems of the WEF.Based on a cause-effect diagram of the WEF developed by the system dynamics model,it can be observed that the WEF subsystems are extremely closely interlinked.A change in one resource is bound to cause a ’chain reaction’ between two other resources.As each of the WEF subsystems grows,this coupling is likely to show an increased intensity,sensitivity and complexity.2.The dynamics of the evolution of the WEF subsystems.(1)In the period 1997-2017,despite a decreasing trend in per capita freshwater abstraction in the domain(23.31% decrease),the total amount of water abstracted is still on an increasing trend(8.18% increase)and permanently accounts for more than 30% of the total amount of water abstracted globally.In particular,agriculture takes up the largest share of water use and on average(74.18%)more than the world(70%).(2)Total and per capita energy consumption in all countries is on an upward trend,increasing from 22.17% to 35.41%of total global energy consumption,moreover,one-off consumption energy such as coal,oil and natural gas is still used as the main energy source.(3)Food production in all countries has shown a fluctuating upward trend,growing by 42.74%,and the share of major cereals in global production has been maintained at around 30% for a prolonged period of time.3.The state of coupled and coordinated development of the WEF.(1)In the time dimension,the overall WEF composite development index and coupling coordination degree in the region exhibited an increasing trend during 1997-2017.By region,the WEF coupling coordination of four regions,except for the arid zone of Pakistan showing a downward trend,the arid zone of West Asia in Central Asia,the cold and arid zone of Mongolia and Russia,and the China region,all displaying an upward trend.Regarding the WEF coupling coordination by country,the WEF coupling coordination of 16 countries is not very high(all less than 0.8).Apart from Egypt,Iran,Syria,Russia and Pakistan,which show a decreasing trend,all other countries tend to increase.(2)In the spatial dimension,the WEF coupling degree of all four regions is above 0.95,while the WEF coupling coordination degree ranges from 0.6 to 0.8.In particular,the China region is the highest,belonging to the intermediate level of coordination,while the Central Asia and Western Asia arid zone is the lowest,belonging to the primary level of coordination,showing a general trend of gradually decreasing from east to west.The average value of WEF coupling(1997-2017)for all 16 countries is more than 0.93,indicating an extremely high level of association among the three.However,the level of WEF coupling coordination among countries is not high and varies widely,presenting an overall spatial pattern of high north-south and low middle,and low west and high east,which are at three levels of barely coordinated,primary coordinated and intermediate coordinated respectively.Based on spatio-temporal changes,WEF coupling coordination degree in this region did not change much in the past 20 years,and remained at a low coordination level.4.The relationship between the WEF and the level of development.Over the period 1997-2017,the trends in HDI change and the trends in WEF coupling coherence are not consistent.In countries with very high and high HDI,the trends are largely aligned.In contrast,in countries with a medium HDI,the trends show opposite trends.It can be indicated that countries with very high and high levels of development have seen a convergence of WEF,while countries with medium levels of development,because of their greater development pressures and needs,display a strained WEF relationship.5.The analysis of the drivers of WEF coupling and coordination.As indicated by the partial least squares regression results,the WEF coupling coordination of countries in the region is influenced by a combination of factors such as socio-economic level,energy intensity,consumption level,technological manpower,degree of openness to the outside world and climate change.There are more than 4 main drivers affecting the WEF coupling coordination in each country,and four countries are affected by 11 main drivers.Among them,the main drivers jointly affecting the WEF coupling coordination degree are climate change,the degree of openness,the proportion of industrial added value and the level of consumption.At the meantime,the drivers vary significantly,with different factors impacting different countries in different directions and degrees.6.The forecast of WEF coupling coordination.According to the results of the GM(1,1)simulations,it is predicted that the overall WEF coupling coordination in the region will continue its slow upward trend,increasing from 0.6311 in 2017 to 0.6322 in 2027,with an increase of 0.17%.In general,the WEF coupling coordination in the mid-and high-latitude arid and semi-arid regions of Eurasia will remain at the primary coordination level in the long term,and there is a risk of further decreases in Jordan,Kazakhstan,Mongolia and Pakistan.On the basis of the above study,countermeasure suggestions such as increasing investment in technological innovation,optimizing and adjusting industrial structure,realizing intra-regional resource sharing,and actively and scientifically addressing impact challenges were proposed.