Research On Financial Risk Based On Z-value Model

Agriculture plays a vital role in the development of the national economy and it is important to prevent financial risks in the industry.With the introduction of the "No.1 Document",the agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery sector has become a key sector of interest.In this context,the agricultural industry has developed rapidly and the agricultural economy has been significantly enhanced,but a considerable number of agricultural enterprises have not achieved leapfrog development after going public,but have been poorly run for various reasons.Based on the current situation of the development of agricultural enterprises in China.This paper adopts the Z-score model in the multivariate model to empirically analyse the financial risk of agricultural enterprises based on the financial statement data of D enterprises in the past five years,to find out the main causes of the formation of the financial risk of agricultural enterprises and to make corresponding suggestions on how to further reduce the financial risk of agricultural enterprises in China.This paper attempts to construct an analysis of the financial risk of D enterprises based on the Z-score model.The first part of the paper includes the background and significance of the study,research ideas and methods,and a literature review.In the second part,the relevant concepts and related theories of financial risk are introduced to lay the foundation for the subsequent financial risk example study.In the third part,the characteristics and causes of financial risk in the agricultural industry are analysed,and the Z-value model is applied to the agricultural industry for empirical analysis to prove that the Z-value model is applicable to listed agricultural enterprises.The fourth part takes enterprise D as the specific research object and analyses the current financial situation of enterprise D from four perspectives:profitability risk,operating capacity risk,solvency risk and development capacity risk.The fifth part is based on the Z-score model D enterprises financial risk analysis,and selects and D enterprises in the same industry H enterprises for comparison,further analysis of the current financial risks of D enterprises,the study shows that in the past five years D enterprises are facing a relatively large risk in debt servicing,enterprise capital chain tension;loan exchange rate changes,loan interest rate increases and other factors lead to D enterprises capital costs become higher;overseas investment of The combination of these factors has led to a reduction in the Z-value of Enterprise D in the last five years.In the sixth part,in light of the current financial situation and operation of Enterprise D,targeted countermeasures are proposed based on the financial risks of Enterprise D.The main recommendations include: expanding financing channels;optimising capital structure;and strengthening investment risk management.Through this paper,we expect to contribute to the in-depth study of financial risks in the agricultural industry,and at the same time help to avoid the financial risks of D enterprises,implement targeted countermeasures and promote the long-term development of enterprises.