Analysis Of China’s Soybean Import Demand Under The Background Of "Double Cycle"

As an important food crop and oil crop,soybean plays an important role in economy and people’s daily life.However,since 1996,China’s soybean consumption has relied heavily on imports.A large number of imports have impacted the domestic soybean industry,damaged the income of soybean farmers and reduced their enthusiasm for soybean production.This paper analyzes China’s soybean import demand under the background of "Double Cycle",and studies how to make good use of internal and external environment to optimize the relationship between soybean import and production in China.Combined trade theory,consumer demand preference theory and other related theories,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s soybean production and import trade by using the data of Soybean production and import in China,and finds that China’s soybean supply and demand gap is huge for a long time,and the import source is very concentrated.Based on the perspective of "Double Cycle",this paper uses Rotterdam model to analyze China’s soybean import demand and total demand in the international market and domestic market.In the international market,based on the huge share of China’s soybean imports and the fierce competition among import source countries,this paper analyzes the expenditure elasticity and substitution elasticity of China’s soybean.In the domestic market,the domestic supply of soybeans into China’s soybean consumption cycle,combined with the demand elasticity theory and other related theories,analyze the status and elasticity of domestic soybeans The results show that:(1)in the international market,income elasticity shows that the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans in China’s import source market is greater than that of the United States,Argentina and other countries.(2)China’s soybean import demand is relatively stable as a whole,but there are significant seasonal fluctuations for different soybean source countries,which is closely related to the soybean harvest season.From February to April,China has the largest demand for Brazilian soybeans;From May to July,China’s soybean demand for Argentina increased significantly.From November to January,China’s soybean demand for the United States increased significantly.(3)Compared with imported soybeans,Chinese soybeans are the least competitive.After domestic soybeans are included in the demand equation,compared with soybeans from other producing areas,the expenditure elasticity of Chinese soybeans is the smallest,which means that the domestic market is very sensitive to changes in the price of domestic soybeans.If the price increases,the demand for domestic soybeans will decrease significantly.Accordingly,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions from two aspects: optimizing China’s soybean import and the development of China’s soybean industry.In terms of optimizing soybean imports,China should expand import sources and strengthen cooperation with Brazil.In optimizing the development of China’s soybean industry,we should scientifically develop the soybean industry and change the mode of soybean production.