| As the basic industry of the national economy,agriculture is the key object of protection of various countries during global trade negotiations.As a major trader of agricultural products,the US’s trade policy trends have an important impact on the world agricultural trade,especially the development of agricultural trade between China and the United States.For a country like China with more people and less land,uneven distribution of farming areas,and lack of fresh water resources,how to improve the utilization of existing agricultural resources and enhance the international comparative advantage of agricultural products is a huge challenge to achieve agricultural modernization.In this regard,Israel’s experience is worth learning from.Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to explore the Granger causality between the United States and Israel,their trade comparative advantage index,net export ratio,and trade policy intervention index.Based on the annual trade data provided by the United Nations Statistics Office,this paper uses econometric research methods and uses the three-digit number of the second revised version of SITC Rev.2 in the standard classification method of international trade as the classification standard.From 1981 to 2020,the three indicators of "net export ratio","symmetric revealed comparative advantage index" and "policy intervention index" of the country’s primary agricultural products were statically described,dynamically comparatively evolved and corresponding quantitative empirical analysis,and the following results were obtained.in conclusion: The following conclusions are drawn:(1)In terms of exports,both countries have comparative advantages in primary agricultural products,but Israel has always been in a trade deficit position,while the United States is basically in a trade surplus position.The reason is that the author believes that this is inseparable from the influence of the natural resources of the two countries.Israel lacks natural resources,while the United States has sufficient natural resources.In the export of primary agricultural products,resource-rich countries have more output and have an advantage.(2)The United States has basically adopted a trade policy of restricting the export of primary agricultural products in the past ten years.Similarly,Israel has adopted the same policy in the past three years,which makes its international competitiveness lower than its actual comparative advantage.According to the comparison and analysis of the U.S.bills of various stages and the dynamic trade model of U.S.primary agricultural products export,it is found that the export policy intervention of U.S.primary agricultural products may have the opposite effect.(3)Both Israel and the United States have comparative advantages in import trade of primary agricultural products,but Israel adopts a policy of encouraging the import of primary agricultural products,while the United States adopts a trade policy characteristic of restricting the import of primary agricultural products.According to the Granger causality test,it is concluded that the U.S.policy of restricting the import of its primary agricultural products has a negative effect,indicating that the United States should encourage the free trade of its primary agricultural products rather than continue to strengthen its trade barriers;Due to the increase of its export comparative advantage,this proves that the policy of encouraging the import of primary agricultural products can not only make up for the lack of domestic resources,but also facilitate the two-way development of the country’s primary agricultural product trade import and export.(4)The long-term Granger causality test shows that when the Israeli government adopts a policy of promoting exports of primary agricultural products,it will increase its comparative advantage in importing primary agricultural products;when the comparative advantage in imports increases,it will increase the comparative advantage in exporting Israel’s primary agricultural products.,which makes its export-oriented policy have a certain effect,which may be the reason why Israel adopts the policy of exporting agricultural products to earn foreign exchange.(5)As Israel’s actual export comparative advantage increases,the effect of its government’s measures to promote exports of primary agricultural products will become weaker and weaker,indicating that with the rise of export comparative advantage,Israel’s primary agricultural exports are more inclined to market-oriented trade without government intervention.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results of this paper,the author puts forward some reference suggestions for China’s current and future agricultural and agricultural trade policies.Based on the relevant conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis of the agricultural product trade model between the two countries in this paper,China can consider coordinating and making full use of both domestic and international markets,strengthening government subsidies,implementing policies to encourage free trade in both import and export of agricultural products,and reducing trade frictions. |
