Study On The Spatiotemporal Difference And Classified Regulation Of The Impact Of Urban Contraction On Agricultural Development In The Three Northeastern Provinces

The research on the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development is an important scientific basis for maintaining food security and promoting agricultural development under the background of parallel urban contraction and urbanization in China and is an extension and supplement to the theory of urban contraction.Based on the measurement results of the contracted cities in the three northeastern provinces in previous studies,this paper selects 15 contracted cities in the three northeastern provinces as the research objects,constructs the urban contraction evaluation index system to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern of the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces from 2005 to 2020,uses the geographical weighted regression model and the geographical detector model to analyze its influencing factors and regional differences,and puts forward targeted control strategies.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of time dimension,the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces shows a fluctuating trend as a whole,and the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development decreases first and then increases with time.From 2005 to 2015,the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces showed an upward trend,and from 2015 to 2020,the impact of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces showed a downward trend.(2)From the perspective of spatial pattern,the urban contraction of Liaoning Province and Jilin Province has the most significant impact on agricultural development,while the urban contraction of Heilongjiang Province has relatively weak impact on agricultural development.In 2005-2010,the influence level of urban contraction in the three northeastern provinces on agricultural development gradually decreased from southwest to northeast.In 2010-2015,the influence level of urban contraction in the three northeastern provinces on agricultural development gradually increased from southwest to northeast.In 2015-2020,the influence level of urban contraction in the three northeastern provinces on agricultural development gradually increased from northwest to southeast.(3)From the perspective of impact factors,the main impact factors of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces include population loss and economic recession.Among them,the growth rate of GDP and per capita GDP are the primary factors affecting agricultural development caused by urban contraction in the three northeastern provinces;Natural population growth rate and population density are important factors affecting agricultural development due to urban contraction in the three northeastern provinces.(4)The main reasons for the impact of urban contraction on the agricultural development of different cities are different and can be divided into economic recession area in the north,negative population growth area in the southeast,and population density change area in the southwest.The impact factors of urban contraction on agricultural development in the three northeastern provinces include population loss,economic recession,changes in fertility policies,and irrational urban construction.However,the main impact factors of urban contraction in different cities are different.Relevant population,talent policies,and economic and urban construction plans should be formulated for the main urban problems.(5)According to the main factors affecting the agricultural development of different cities affected by urban contraction,the corresponding control strategies are put forward:the northern economic recession zone should promote high-quality economic development,adhere to the scientific development concept,accelerate the construction of modern industrial system,and promote the optimization and upgrading of economic structure;The shrinking cities in the negative population growth area in the southeast should strengthen the population attraction and actively deal with the population problem;The population density change areas in the southwest should adhere to "smart contraction",use land resources efficiently,and advocate high-quality urban development.