The Spatiotemporal Characteristics And Development Trend Forecast Of Innovative Efficency Growth In China's Three Northeastern Provinces

Among various different measures which can be used tomake the promotion of regional economic development,the role of innovation cannot be ignored.Over the past 20 years,the proportion of the total number of researchers in the three northeastern provinces(including Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning)has dropped 6.6 percent.Besides,the R & D / GDP of the three northeastern provinces increased by only0.09%,which is far below the national average(1.51%).According to thecurrent researches,it can be found that the economic growth achieved through the innovation capacity in the northeastern provinces accounts for 49.3%,which indicates that innovation plays an important role during the process of promoting the economic development.Innovation has turned into more and more important for regional development in China.On the basis of the panel data of China rangingfrom 1995 to 2015,Malmquist index model was used to make the analysis on the temporal and spatial differences of innovation TFP in the three provinces of Northeast China.The PVAR model was constructed on decomposed data.The change trend of TFP and its decomposition inthese three provinces of Northeast Chinaareforecasted.In accordance with the above process,three conclusions can be made as follows:(1)The innovation TFP growth speed of Northeast China is slightly higher than that of Western China while is lower than Central China and Eastern China.(2)From the inside of the three northeastern provinces,the innovation TFP of Jilin Province,which is driven by the improvement of the management level and the adjustment of the system(PEC),grew fastest from 1995 to 2015;Secondly,the the major driving force of innovation TFP of Jilin Province came from technology.However,its technological progress has been limited by the scale of innovation.The growth rate of innovation TFP in Heilongjiang Province is the slowest,which is mainly due to the limited growth rate of endogenous power(SEC,PTC,STC,PEC).At the same time,the result shows that the promotion of the system and management level in these three northeastern provinces is far greater than the technological progress and the enlargement of the scale.(3)Based on the forecast results,the three provinces in the Northeast innovation TFP growth rate may continue to slow down in the near future.From the perspective of unit changes,STC and SEC unit changes play the dominant roles in improving TFP of the three northeastern provinces.In terms of the degree of influence,the innovation of TFP in Northeast China is mainly affected by the change of PEC and SEC.