The Influence Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty On Bank Credit Risk

The 2008 US financial crisis quickly impacted the global financial system and also dealt a heavy blow to the real economy,leading to a downturn in the economies of various countries.In order to promote economic development,governments of various countries have begun to exert their influence on the economy,including formulating and implementing a series of monetary policies,such as raising the statutory reserve requirement ratio,open market operations,etc.,in order to restore the situation of economic recession.However,the uncertainty of monetary policy has also shown an increasing trend due to these actions.Banks,as a special type of enterprise,undertake functions such as real economic development and structural adjustment under the guidance of the central bank’s monetary policy and other national macroeconomic policies.The credit risk of banks will inevitably be affected by the uncertainty of monetary policy.To study the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on bank credit risk levels,this article selected data from 44 listed banks in China from 2009 to 2021 to empirically test the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on bank credit risk.Sample banks were divided based on bank nature and asset level to test whether the aforementioned effects are heterogeneous among different banks.In addition,this article empirically verifies the mediating role of credit scale in the aforementioned channel processes,and proves the moderating effects of bank competition,risky asset prices,and spread income.Through research,this article draws the following conclusions:(1)The increase in monetary policy uncertainty increases the credit risk of banks;(2)The uncertainty of monetary policy has a heterogeneous effect on the credit risk of banks of different nature and asset sizes;(3)The scale of bank credit plays a partial intermediary role in this process;(4)Bank competition,risky asset prices,and spread income play a moderating role in the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on bank credit risk.At present.China’s monetary policy uncertainty is still at a high level,which puts forward higher requirements for banks’ ability to identify and manage risks.While doing a good job in risk management and control,banks should also improve their ability to identify monetary policies in order to better support the development of the real economy.At the same time,for government departments,central banks and other departments should strengthen the transparency of monetary policy,timely guide the expectations of the financial market,and enable various entities in the financial market to better interpret policies.