Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Diversified Operations Of My Country's Commercial Bank

In recent years,the economic environment at home and abroad has become more and more complicated.The government has actively carried out macro-economic regulation and control to guide the healthy development of the economy.At the same time,as an important participant in the financial market,under the background of the increasing uncertainty of economic policy,more and more scholars connect commercial banks with it,focus on the impact of economic policy on bank behavior.However,nowadays,technological progress and financial innovation are constantly emerging,and a new competition pattern appears in the banking industry.The profit space of traditional credit business is narrowed,and the position of diversification strategy is increasing day by day.Under the development of diversification strategy,the research on economic policy uncertainty is very limited.With the increase of economic policy uncertainty,how the diversification of commercial banks will be affected,what are the channels,and what differences exist,these issues need to be discussed in depth.Based on this,this paper carries on the theoretical analysis and the empirical test to the correlation between the economic policy uncertainty and the commercial bank diversification,reveals the internal relationship between the two,and then expands the related research,to provide suggestions for the development of diversified banking system.In this paper,first of all,the predecessors of the relevant research,combined with the status quo of commercial bank diversification,using the portfolio theory,economies of scale and scope of economic theory,financial synergy theory,this paper analyzes the mechanism and effect of economic policy uncertainty on the diversification of banks,and discusses the heterogeneity effect under the micro-characteristics of banks.Secondly,based on the uncertainty index of China’s economic policy,this paper selects the unbalanced panel data of 200 commercial banks in our country from 2008 to 2020,and uses the static panel model,dynamic panel model and instrumental variable method,this paper examines the overall impact and heterogeneity of economic policy uncertainty on the diversification of commercial banks,and uses the multi-intermediary effect model to verify the possible mechanism,and further use of the provincial economic policy uncertainty index to explore the heterogeneity of impact in our Midwestern Sectional Figure Skating Championships and eastern regions.The final results show that:(1)the economic policy uncertainty promotes the diversification of our commercial banks;(2)under the test of heterogeneity of Banks’ micro-characteristics,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the diversification of non-state-owned banks with small-scale assets,high Capital adequacy ratio,strong market power is more obvious;(3)under the mechanism test,the uncertainty of economic policy affects the diversification of commercial banks mainly through three ways: increasing the risk of banks,reducing the level of banks’ performance and reducing the liquidity of banks;(4)using the provincial-level economic policy uncertainty index to conduct a region-by-region test,it is found that economic policy uncertainty has a more significant positive effect on the diversification of our Midwestern Sectional Figure Skating Championships commercial banks.