The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Credit Risk Of Commercial Banks

Since the global economic crisis in 2008,the global macroeconomic environment has been complex and volatile,the factors of instability and uncertainty have increased significantly.In response to the complex and changeable economic situation at home and abroad,China has introduced a series of macroeconomic policies to mitigate the economic downturn,but accompanied by the economic policy uncertainty index keeps rising,which not only has an impact on the real economy,but also has an impact on the financial market.After the global financial crisis in 2008,some scholars believe that credit risk is the primary risk of commercial banks,believing that the capital level,profitability and financing cost of commercial banks are affected by the quality of credit assets.Real estate,a major contributor to the nation’s economy,holds a significant place in the financial markets.Bank loans are currently the primary source of financing for real estate businesses in our nation.When the economic policy uncertainty index increases,the real estate market will be affected.As an intermediary,real estate will affect the credit assets of commercial banks and the systemic risk of commercial banks.On the basis of the above theories,this paper will discuss the influence mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on real estate prices through the intermediary way of housing price,and put forward relevant policy suggestions from the perspective of maintaining the continuity of macroeconomic policies and stabilizing market expectations.First of all,this paper starts from the relevant literature review.Start with the impact of economic policy uncertainty,real estate price fluctuation,housing price fluctuation and commercial bank credit risk.The effect mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on housing price is analyzed theoretically from various effects.Specifically analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank credit risk,and believes that real estate price plays an intermediary role in the transmission effect.Secondly,based on theoretical and practical basis,This paper collected data from 2008 to 2020,takes economic policy uncertainty as the core explanatory variable,real estate price as the intermediary variable,and commercial bank credit risk as the explained variable,and constructs the probability default model and the intermediary effect expansion model.Finally,the robustness test was carried out by replacing the measurement method of explanatory variables,endogeneity test and econometric model estimation method.The results show that:(1)With the increase of economic policy uncertainty,bank credit risk increases significantly,and then affects the systemic risk of commercial banks;(2)Because of bank heterogeneity,economic policy uncertainty has different influence on state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.Among them,the positive impact on the credit risk of non-state-owned commercial banks is greater.In non-state-owned banks,the uncertainty of economic policy has different impact on national commercial banks and regional commercial banks.Among them,the credit risk of national commercial banks is greatly affected.3)Economic policy uncertainty increases bank credit risk by reducing real estate price,that is,real estate price plays an intermediary role in economic policy uncertainty’s effect on commercial banks’ credit risk.4)In the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the credit risk of commercial banks,the business cycle and the banking industry climate index have a moderating effect.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research results,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions,and believes that the government’s macroeconomic policies should maintain stability,while strengthening the policy expectation management.