| In the past few years,the process of globalization has been hindered by a number of factors.The global political and economic situation has become more complex,which has greatly increased the uncertainty around the world.The uncertainty of China’s economic policies has broken through to a new high in recent years,and the banking industry,as an important part of our country’s financial system,has a non-negligible impact on supporting the real economy and promoting the healthy and stable development of the social economy.On the basis of previous studies on economic policy uncertainty,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on commercial bank credit.After introducing the background and significance of the research,the article first summarizes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic activities and commercial banks by sorting out relevant domestic and foreign literature.Further sorting out the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the credit delivery mechanism of commercial banks,then study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on commercial banks’ credit supply from the macro and micro levels respectively.The macroscopic part studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total amount of credit in our country’s banking industry,based on overall credit,short-term credit,medium and long-term credit data of domestic deposit-taking financial institutions from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2020,by building a VAR model,conduct impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the growth of banking credit with different term structures,at the micro level,the research is on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the growth of individual credit availability of commercial banks in my country.Based on the data of 382 domestic commercial banks from 2009 to 2020,by constructing a multiple regression model and study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different types of loans such as different types of commercial banks,city commercial banks in different regions,corporate credit,and personal credit.Combined with the empirical results of the macro and micro parts,the following conclusions are drawn,first,the uncertainty of economic policy will have a negative impact on the growth rate of the overall credit supply of the banking industry,moreover,it has an inhibitory effect on the growth of credit with different maturity structures such as short-term,medium-term and long-term,relatively large impact on medium and long-term credit growth,the credit demand index has a positive impact on the credit growth of the banking industry with different maturity structures.Second,economic policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on the growth of commercial banks’ individual credit supply,and this impact is more significant for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks.Third,the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on city commercial banks in other regions is more significant than that of city commercial banks in eastern regions.Fourth,economic policy uncertainty has a more significant negative impact on corporate credit than personal consumption credit.According to the conclusions drawn,the paper finally puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for financial supervision departments and banks. |
