Empirical Analysis Of Factors Affecting Short-term Cross-border Capital Flow

Under the background of global economic integration,our country,as a country with capital controls,has opened its capital account gradually.Therefore,the scale of domestic short-term cross-border capital flows has gradually expanded,and the characteristics of a stage and volatility have been shown.Short-term cross-border capital flows,a regional economies for capital allocation in the national capital market and the development of financial markets,can play a positive role,but due to some short-term cross-border capital inflows,has strong characteristics of speculative,capital inflows and outflows in the short term,will cause certain impact to the stability of the market economy,Not conducive to the stable development of the market.Therefore,in the process of short-term cross-border capital flow,it is necessary to carry out a detailed analysis of the influencing factors,so as to strengthen the management of short-term cross-border capital flow and provide a stable environment for the development of domestic financial market.In recent years,the expectation of RMB appreciation has been strengthening continuously,so the short-term cross-border investment from abroad,in our country to close the situation began through normal channels,abnormal channels and so on frequent inflow and outflow.The scale of short-term cross-border capital flows is gradually expanding in terms of inflows,which will bring great pressure to the appreciation of RMB to a certain extent.On the contrary,the increasing outflow of short-term cross-border capital flows will pose a certain threat to the economic fundamentals.Short-term cross-border capital flow is affected by certain factors,but the specific effects and whether the effects are significant need to be further studied.In the process of research,this article USES the literature material method,empirical analysis method,etc.,based on the data from 2016 to 2021,trying to build an empirical analysis model,based on the predecessors’ research,choose the interest rate,exchange rate,capital market earnings factors,political environment,economic environment factors,natural factors,such as comprehensive analysis and other factors.further research.Through model testing,the research conclusions are drawn,and the factors affecting the short-term cross-border capital flow are studied,and finally the targeted measures are put forward.The research results show that all the influencing factors selected in this paper will have an impact on the domestic short-term cross-border capital flow.The specific impact degree in order is interest rate spread,RMB appreciation rate,international economic growth rate,real estate return rate,stock market return rate,VIX index and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.At present,our country needs to further strengthen the management of short-term floating capital,pay attention to the prevention of international risk factors,the opening of the capital account to strengthen supervision,finally,pay attention to the expectation management of the current domestic market,etc.,so as to ensure the stability of the financial environment and promote the market economy to advance steadily.