The Study On The Influencing Factors Of Short- Term Cross-border Capital Flow In The Process Of RMB Globalization

From floating exchange rate reformation of RMB in July 2005,to RMB formally joined the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights(SDR)basket in October 2016 by IMF,the globalization of RMB continues to accelerate.Meanwhile,the status and role of RMB in the international financial market system is also improved obviously,which fully reflects the results of financial reformation in our country.However,joining the SDR basket brings new effects and challenges on our country in term of short-term capital flow management and the stability of domestic financial market.The article begins with the theory of short-term capital flows,explained the concept,classification and classical theory of motivation,including exchange rate and interest rate decision theory,hedge theory,portfolio theory,monetary policy theory and currency crisis theory.Based on the actual background of China capital controls,the article summarizes the channel of short-term international capital flow in our country,including normal legal channels reflected from balance of payments and hidden illegal channels that can not be reflected from balance of payments.On this basis,using the weighted average of three common methods to measure the short-term international capital flows of our country.To confirm the major influencing factors of short-term capital flows,this article selects the interest-rate spread of domestic and foreign,stock market returns,national real estate prosperous index,international economic and financial situation and virtual policy variable: IMF announced that RMB joins SDR basket from various factors of short-term capital flows to set up VAR testing model.The results shows that: among those factors,international economic and financial situation is the main factor of China's short-term capital flows.Domestic and foreign interest rate spread and the national real estate sentiment index have some influence on China's short-term capital flows.The effect of stock market return on short-term capital flows is not obvious.The influence of policy-based virtual variables on short-term capital flows in China shows a certain lag.At the end of paper,the article proposes some policy suggestions basing on results of empirical analysis in terms of short-term capital flows management under the new situation,including establishing the integrated monitoring system in short-term capital flows;promoting the opening of capital account steadily;improving the domestic financial market system,improving the pricing mechanism for financial factors,and strengthening pricing power of financial factors;establishing and improving a framework of macro-prudential management.These suggestions will have important referential value for China's management of short-term international capital flows.