Research On The Optimal Replacement Rate Of Urban Workers’ Basic Pension Insurance Under The Background Of Delayed Retirement

Along with a marked increase in average life expectancy,China’s ageing rate is becoming more and more severe,which forms a strong impact on the field of social security.The solvency pressure of pension fund is constantly rising,and the replacement rate of basic pension insurance,which measures the level of pension treatment,continues to decline.In order to cope with the challenge brought by the aging population to the pension system,we plan to implement the progressive retirement delay policy.Even though the policy has not yet been officially implemented,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore its mechanism affecting the pension replacement rate and to study deeply how to optimize the pension replacement rate parameter under the background of delayed retirement.By the use of literature analysis,general economic equilibrium theory,social welfare function and numerical simulation method,under the background of delayed retirement,this paper takes the replacement rate of urban workers’ basic pension as the core of the study.On the basis of the two-stage overlapping model involving the three departments of individuals,enterprises and government,the delayed retirement and other factors are introduced to revise and expand it,and social welfare issues are considered at the same time.In order to achieve the purpose of further maximizing social welfare in the stable state of market economy,the mathematical expression of the optimal replacement rate of endowment insurance is derived.The numerical simulation is used to analyze the changes of the optimal replacement rate of basic endowment insurance under three scenarios:the delayed retirement policy alone,the delayed retirement policy under the condition of the extended life expectancy,and the delayed retirement policy under the condition of the rising population growth rate under the adjustment of the fertility policy.On this basis,the economic effect of delayed retirement is further studied.The results show that the optimal replacement rate increases first and then decreases with the delayed retirement age.Implementing the delayed retirement policy and selecting the appropriate number of delayed retirement years will promote the improvement of the replacement rate under the maximization of social welfare,and will bring positive economic effects.Implementing the policy of postponing retirement when life expectancy is prolonged and implementing the policy of postponing retirement when population growth rate is rising will further increase the growth rate of replacement rate.The increase of population growth rate caused by the adjustment of birth policy will increase the retirement age corresponding to the maximum replacement rate,which makes the adjustment space of the delayed retirement policy to optimize the replacement rate larger.Except for retirement age,life expectancy and population growth rate,the optimal replacement rate is more sensitive to individual discount factor,capital income share and social discount factor.Based on these findings above,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the perspective of replacement rate optimization:First of all,actively promote and implement the delay retirement policy,including strengthening publicity and public opinion guidance,scientific formulation of specific deferred retirement plans,and construction of a reasonable economic incentive mechanism.Secondly,we should pay attention to the adjustment of fertility policy while implementing the delayed retirement,and efforts will be made to improve relevant supporting measures of fertility policy,so as to improve the fertility willingness of young and middle-aged people of childbearing age.Finally,we will continue to deepen the reform of the pension insurance system and further improve the level of pension security for workers.