Delay Retirement And Fertility Policy Adjustment's Influence On The Sustainability Of Urban And Rural Residents Endowment Insurance Fund

The internal character of urban and rural residents'pension, such as its subsidiary system and balance heritability, determined that government's financial support is the key to the long-term effective operation of pension funds in China's urban and rural residents. Based on the prediction of China's future population and current policy, this paper predicts the future operation of urban and rural residents' pension by building the expense and revenue model of the urban and rural residents'pension fund. Besides, we analyze its financial sustainability from two aspects, fund gap and fiscal burden,and on the basis of sustainable political impact of delayed retirement and relaxing one-child restriction, we analyze the political effect when these two policy used in conjunction. The results reveal that under the current system, there is a certain risk of imbalance at urban and rural residents'endowment insurance personal account. Sustainably, the total fiscal burden can be controlled to a certain extent on the contrary. Delayed retirement policy has an immediate effect by relieving financial pressure of personal accounts in the short and medium terms. However, time delay occurs in the policy off relaxing one-child restriction. For the initial twenty years, the policy can hardly influence the expense and revenue of the personal accounts. In the medium term, it can relieve financial pressure of personal accounts. The coordination use of these two policies, especially when timing reasonable, has the best relief to personal accounts. But the above policy has the possibility of increasing sustainable risk in personal accounts' pension because the internal characters of pension systems for rural residents and urban residents. If to get rid of the financial dependence on the government, the nature of the policy needs to be reformed.