Research On Supply Chain Risk Assessment And Early-warning Of Cross-border E-commerce Enterprises Under DTC Mode

With the rapid development of information technology and the continuous promotion of various favorable policies,the scale of cross-border e-commerce has achieved rapid growth,becoming an important boost to the development of foreign trade.However,the direct-to-consumer(DTC)model has emerged as the next hotspot of cross-border e-commerce due to the rising cost of platform operation,intensified competition in the industry,enhanced demand for data security and control,and lower technical threshold of website construction et.al.Under the DTC cross-border ecommerce mode,enterprises rely on independent online sales channels to carry out cross-border trade,which further increases the uncertainty of supply chain operation and leads to endless risk events.As there is no mature scale for supply chain risk assessment of DTC cross-border e-commerce enterprises,and supply chain risk management of enterprises mainly focuses on risk remediation,there is a lack of effective risk assessment and early warning methods.Therefore,based on the social network analysis method,grounded theory and expert method,this paper constructed a supply chain risk assessment index system of DTC cross-border e-commerce enterprises,and combined the cumulative prospect theory,fuzzy set theory and grey prediction method to build the risk assessment and early warning model.The research contents and results are as follows:(1)Combing existing relevant research literature,the social network analysis method is used to screen the key risks of e-commerce supply chain.The original text data were obtained through network query and actual research,then the grounded theory was used to further identify and analyze the supply chain risks of DTC cross-border ecommerce enterprises,and the supply chain risk framework was obtained based on the operation mode of DTC cross-border e-commerce supply chain.Finally,based on risk cause analysis and expert interviews,the supply chain risk assessment index system of DTC cross-border e-commerce enterprises is constructed.(2)Considering the complexity of risk,the fuzziness of evaluation information and the risk preference of decision makers,a mixed data risk assessment model including real number,linguistic number,interval number and interval intuitionistic fuzzy number is constructed.Specifically,the DEMATEL method and the entropy weight method were used to assign weights to indexes,and expert weights were calculated by considering the hesitancy and similarity of evaluation information,and cumulative prospect theory was used to process data information to obtain supply chain risk assessment values.Finally,the design idea of single index warning limit and comprehensive warning limit is given,and the grey prediction method is used to predict the risk index value to realize the supply chain risk warning.(3)The feasibility and effectiveness of the model established in this paper are verified through a practical case study.In addition,according to the case analysis results and grounded analysis data,relevant suggestions are provided for supply chain risk prevention of DTC cross-border e-commerce enterprises.