| Agricultural trade cooperation is a major part of the Belt and Road.However,in the development of agricultural trade policies and models,the lack of consideration of soil and water resources that restrict the planting structure of agricultural products and the development of agricultural trade,it will to a large extent restrict the in-depth development of international cooperation in agriculture between China and the countries along the B&R.Therefore,the model considering the constraints of soil and water resources will be crucial to the adjustment of the planting structure of agricultural products and the innovation of trade methods,and the research results can provide decision-making proposal for inter-governmental agricultural multilateral trade.This paper mainly studies the multilateral trade optimization of the main agricultural products among China and Central Asian countries,and calculates the hidden virtual resources.The main contents and research results include:(1)Combing the current situation of the utilization of soil and water resources in China and Central Asian countries,it is found that with the exception of China and Kazakhstan,the proportion of agricultural water consumption in other countries is very high,reaching 90%.Except for Kazakhstan,the land reclamation rate in Central Asia is less than 10%.Based on the statistical analysis of the planting and trade evolution characteristics of the main crops between China and Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2019,it is found that the average annual planting area of China’s three major grains(corn,wheat and rice)accounts for about 68% of the cultivated land area,of which corn is the most;the cultivation of wheat and cotton in Central Asia is dominant,the former is mainly distributed in Kazakhstan,and the latter is mainly planted in Uzbekistan.Kazakhstan is the main exporter in the trade among Central Asian countries;China mainly imports wheat from Kazakhstan and cotton from Central Asian countries,mainly from Uzbekistan.(2)A multilateral agricultural trading model is developed for China and Central Asia based on constraints of water and land resources.Five main crops are selected and three planning periods are set(planning period 1 is 2020-2024,2 is 2025-2029,3 is2030-2034).The planning goal for the model was the maximum benefit of system.Restrictions were water and land resources,trade volume of import and export,and the fair benefit of water and land resources.The model realize synergy between maximum benefit of the system and fair benefit of water and land resources for every country.The results show that: during 2020-2024,the total benefit was 1.279 billion US dollars,and the benefit growth rates in 2025-2029 and 2030-2034 were 27.36% and 21.92%,respectively.And on the whole,the unit resource benefit of each country is in a relatively fair degree;the unit resource income gap of any two Central Asian countries is relatively small,and tends to a very fair degree.The Gini coefficient method is used to verify the resource benefit of the system,and it is found that the Gini coefficient is less than 0.2,indicating that the benefit of water and cultivated land resources are very small.(3)By using the calculation method of virtual water and virtual cultivated land,this paper estimates the trade volume of virtual water and virtual cultivated land brought by agricultural products between China and Central Asian countries during 2005-2019 and during the planning period(2020-2034).The net import of virtual water and virtual cultivated land in China has been greatly improved during the planning period.It shows that the trade of these five kinds of agricultural products between China and Central Asia is beneficial to alleviate the pressure of water resources and cultivated land resources in China. |
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