Performance Evaluation Of Corn Futures Price Discovery Function Under The Background Of The Evolution Of Temporary Storage Policy

As a policy implemented by China according to the requirements of the times,the temporary reserve policy has affected the futures market prices of relevant agricultural products to varying degrees during its implementation.As the vanguard of the reform of temporary storage policy,soybean and corn have successively moved closer to market-oriented pricing,forming a transformation from national temporary storage purchase to price subsidy separation.However,the price support policy of purchasing wheat,rice and other agricultural products at the lowest price is still maintained,and the government directly intervenes in the price.Compared with the U.S.agricultural futures market,the hedging performance of China’s agricultural futures market is low,and the price discovery function is not obvious or even missing.In this context,as an important variable affecting the price discovery function of China’s agricultural futures market,the temporary reserve policy and other price support policies are worth pondering whether the temporary reserve policy has hindered the development of the corn futures market.This paper intends to take corn as the main research object to study the changes in the price discovery function of corn from the implementation of the temporary reserve policy to the reform process,So as to verify whether the temporary reserve policy promotes or suppresses the price discovery function of the agricultural futures market.In addition,by horizontally comparing the wheat that still implements the minimum price purchase policy and the fully market-oriented American corn,the impact of the policy on the price discovery function is highlighted,and a comprehensive conclusion is reached.The main research method of this article is to build an index system through the construction of an index system,horizontal and vertical comparative analysis,and through the six dimensions of "volatility","correlation","sensitivity","activity","transmission efficiency" and "risk avoidance rate".Through the built index system,the dynamic analysis of the evaluation of the price discovery function in the three stages before,during and after the reform of the temporary reserve policy is carried out,Then we can get the impact of the temporary reserve policy on the price discovery function of corn futures.And through the horizontal comparison between China’s strong wheat and the United States’ corn,further highlight the impact of the temporary reserve policy on the price discovery function of agricultural products.The results show that the correlation between the futures and spot prices of corn is very high,and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices of corn.After the reform of the temporary reserve policy,compared with before the implementation of the temporary reserve policy,the transfer efficiency of the futures market is enhanced,the time to reach the maximum hedging performance is shortened,and the sensitivity of the futures discovery price is enhanced.However,the causal relationship has maintained a single causal relationship from the two-way causal relationship before the implementation of the temporary reserve policy,Hedging performance also decreased slightly.Even though the reform of temporary reserve policy has promoted the marketization of corn price to some extent,and the price discovery function has been slightly enhanced,there are still too many constraints in China’s agricultural futures market,resulting in poor performance of price discovery function.The research on the impact of temporary reserve policy on the price discovery function of corn futures is of great significance to the construction and improvement of agricultural futures market.The premise to ensure the price discovery function of agricultural futures market is to continuously improve the marketization level of agricultural prices and improve the construction of agricultural financial market,Under the premise of ensuring the security and stability of grain prices,the control of the agricultural futures market is gradually released,which is very important for the price discovery function of the futures market.