Study On The Pattern Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Cereal Trade Network Along The Belt And Road

With the development of the international economy,trade protectionism is rising and anti-globalization is intensifying,which hampers international cooperation.The Belt and Road Initiative has opened up a new road for promoting regional economic and trade development.Agriculture has always been an important cooperation project along the Silk Road.In recent years,the trend of internationalization of agricultural trade cooperation has become increasingly obvious.In the trade of agricultural products,cereal trade occupies a special and important position,because cereal,as a necessity to solve hunger and satisfy the basic living conditions,belongs to the strategic material required by the population growth and economic development of a country.Developing cereal trade relations between China and neighboring countries with the help of the "Belt and Road" Initiative is an important choice to improve the current situation of cereal shortage in China.It is of great significance to clarify the competition,complementarity and pattern evolution of cereal trade among countries along the Belt and Road,clarify China’s position in the cereal trade network along the Belt and Road,and analyze the opportunities of cereal trade development between China and countries along the Belt and Road,which will help make cereal cereal use of agricultural resources in countries along the Belt and Road and enrich China’s cereal import sources.It provides an important basis for China’s cereal security and promoting regional cereal trade cooperation.Based on the United Nations commodity trade data from 1999 to 2019,this thesis analyzes the trade network of export relationship,competition relationship and complementary relationship among countries along the belt and Road and its evolution process by using the social network analysis method.The research shows that :(1)the cereal trade of countries along the "belt and road" has become increasingly close,and the cereal trade links between China and central and eastern Europe and southeast Asia have become significantly warmer.(2)The competition and complementarity of cereal trade in countries along the Belt and Road show a rising trend,but the complementarity is stronger than the competition.As a whole,the density of cereal trade network in countries along the Belt and Road is not high.(3)The trade of cereal products among countries along the Belt and Road shows a tendency of concentration to a few countries,mainly in central and Eastern Europe,Southeast Asia and South Asia.China’s participation in the complementary relationship of cereal trade competition along the Belt and Road is not high.(4)The evolution of China’s cereal sector indicates that China has gradually completed the transformation from a large amount of export to import.India,Thailand and other countries are China’s important cereal trading partners.Along the evolution of three cereal trade competition groups.Based on this,this thesis puts forward relevant policy suggestions.The results have guiding significance for deepening the Belt and Road Initiative and promoting the prosperity and development of cereal trade along the routes.(5)The results of QAP regression show that geographical distance between countries,GDP,per capita grain arable area,regime stability and non-violence index,whether the countries use the same official language,whether the territory borders are all factors affecting the cereal trade flow,among which the effects of geographical distance between countries and whether the countries use the same official language are gradually weakening.Based on this,this thesis puts forward some relevant policy suggestions,which is of great significance to enrich China’s cereal import sources and maintain China’s cereal security.