Study On The Evolution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of One Belt And One Road National Cereal Trade Network

The "One Belt And One Road" initiative brings new development opportunities for trade cooperation between China and other countries along the belt and road.As a traditional cooperation area of the "silk road",the trade of agricultural products is an important part of the trade cooperation among countries along the "One Belt And One Road" economic belt.As the basis of human survival and development,cereals products are essential for ensuring people's basic health and maintaining national stability,and have a far-reaching impact on the development of a country's national economy.Before and after the "One Belt And One Road" initiative,how did the spatial pattern of the cereal trade network change? Which factors affect the cereals trade pattern of "One Belt And One Road" countries? In terms of time series,how does the influence of these factors on the network pattern evolve? Discussing the above issues will deepen the trade relationships between countries along the belt and road,promote the common prosperity of regions along the belt and road,balance the cereals supply and demand of regions along the belt and road,and guarantee China's cereals security.Taking cereals defined by FAO as the research object,this article analysis the topological structure characteristics of "One Belt And One Road" national cereals trade network from 1993 to 2018 by selecting indicators such as network point degree,average path length and trade intensity,And further explore the characteristics of community network structure in the whole trade network by using block model.Then,Constructing a regression model of influencing factors of "One Belt And One Road" national cereals trade network by means of QAP method.Finally,the research conclusions and policy Suggestions are given.The analysis results indicates that :(1)The amount of trade relations and trade flows in "One Belt And One Road" countries are continually increasing.The evolutionary process of network develops from the increase of trade relations in the initial stage to the increase of quantity of trade flows after the number of trade relationships becomes stable.(2)The One Belt And One Road national cereal trade network pattern presents the development trend of flattening.The average path length of unweighted network is decreasing and the aggregation coefficient is increasing,showing the obvious small-world characteristics.The standard deviation of the trade intensity of the weighted network decreases,and the control ability of the core nodes of the network declines.Most indicators indicating that the global food crisis and the "One Belt And One Road" initiative brought new changes to the pattern of food trade in the region.The "One Belt And One Road" initiative has improved the environment of cereals trade along the “area”.The evolution of "One Belt And One Road" cereals trade network pattern has gone through four stages: discrete oligonuclear,agglomeration oligonuclear,agglomeration polynuclear and remolding.(3)China's cereals trade with other "One Belt And One Road" countries has undergone an evolution from export-oriented to import-oriented,and“One Belt And One Road”initiative has made China more attractive to neighboring countries in cereal trade(4)The results of Block model analysis indicates that Eastern Europe is the region with the most stable relationship structure.The relation structure of South Asia,nan yang and central Asia is relatively loose,which makes it difficult for them to become the trade subject of one plate.Cross-regional cereal trade flows are increasing while trade links between plates shift from closed to open,and trade flows within plates shift from concentrated to dispersed.(5)The QAP regression results show that Economic scale,agricultural resource endowments and geographical proximity are key factors affecting food trade in "One Belt And One Road" countries,but their influence has been weakened since the outbreak of the global food crisis.In the unweighted network,the standardized coefficient score of trade agreement is the highest,and the positive effect on the formation of trade relationship is the strongest.In the weighted network,the per capita cultivated area of cereal and economic scale have the strongest positive effect on the trade flow.As the whole,The interpretability of unweighted network is higher than that of weighted network.Cereal trade is getting rid of the shackles of traditional influencing factors(economic scale,geographical distance,cultivated land area,trade agreement),and cultural and institutional differences become new restricting factors in the process of grain trade.For China itself,it is essentialy to further strenthened the cereals trade import structure and search for new cereals trade import channels to ensure its own cereals security.