A Study On The Characteristics Of Price Fluctuations And Influencing Factors Of Rapeseed Oil Futures

Under the current complex international situation,agricultural futures are experiencing huge fluctuations,which have affected the price stability of domestic agricultural products and brought some difficulty to maintaining national food security.This paper aims to study the characteristics and influencing factors of the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures,and deeply explore the laws and causes of the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures through theoretical analysis and empirical research.This paper uses various research methods and techniques,including normality test,GARCH family model,R/S analysis,GMM estimation,etc.,to analyze the characteristics of rapeseed oil futures price fluctuations and the related factors affecting their fluctuations.Firstly,this paper summarizes the current situation of relevant research,discusses the basic support theory,then the historical data of rapeseed oil futures price are processed and analyzed,and obtains the fluctuation characteristics of rapeseed oil futures price since its launch.Subsequently,this paper explores the factors affecting the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures,including the supply and demand relationship,exchange rate factors,capital behavior,and so on.Through the empirical study of these factors,the main reasons and rules affecting the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures are obtained.The results show that the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB is one of the main factors for the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures,that is,the rapeseed oil futures price is affected by the exchange rate environment,and the exchange rate fluctuation will greatly affect the price fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures.In addition,the domestic spot price fluctuations will also have an impact on rapeseed oil futures prices.Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are strongly replaced by consumption,and the fluctuation of soybean oil futures will also have an impact on the fluctuation of rapeseed oil futures.In general,the contradiction between supply and demand and the impact of trade environment factors may lead to sharp fluctuations in rapeseed oil futures prices.Based on the above findings,some suggestions are made.First of all,the government should take relevant measures to strengthen market supervision to prevent a serious imbalance between market supply and demand.Secondly,in the context of the current Fed rate hike,the government should also actively respond to the exchange rate fluctuations and take corresponding measures to prevent the policy spillover impact caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.In addition,the government should pay attention to the supply contradiction of vegetable oil to avoid large price fluctuations.These studies and suggestions are of certain practical significance for understanding the law and change trend of rapeseed oil futures price fluctuation,as well as providing reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.