| In order to meet the urgent needs of transforming the economic growth engine and coping with the complex international situation,China proposes to gradually build a new development paradigm with "domestic big cycle as the main body and domestic and international double cycle promoting each other".Subsequently,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)led by ASEAN and jointly participated by China,Japan,South Korea,Australia and New Zealand was officially signed,which became the largest regional free trade agreement in the world and injected new impetus to the new paradigm of accelerating the formation of a double cycle in China.Therefore,the further study of the RCEP agreement will be of great significance to the high-quality development of China’s economy,trade and industry.Based on neoclassical economic theory and computable general equilibrium model,this paper analyzes the impact of the signing of the RCEP agreement on the economic aggregate,trade scale and industrial development of the member countries and China.On the one hand,the research of this paper provides a more scientific research method for quantitative simulation of the systemic impact brought by policy changes or other exogenous shocks;On the other hand,this paper simulates the impact of different policy changes on China’s economy,trade and industrial output through quantitative analysis,which is helpful to find the development path of domestic and international double cycles,and provides data basis for the government to propose corresponding incentive policies.This paper adopts the global trade analysis model in the computable general equilibrium model,based on the macro data in the Global Trade Analysis database and the statistical database of the World Bank,and builds a global trade analysis model in line with the current economic operation through production models,consumption models,trade and global transportation models and macro-economic closure system.The policy simulation is carried out from the two aspects of tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier.The simulation results show that the influence of non-tariff barriers and tariff barriers on the economic scale,trade scale and industrial development of China and other member countries is weakened successively.The combination of tariff reduction and trade facilitation will significantly increase the size of member economies and trade;The simultaneous effect of tariffs and technical barriers to trade will significantly promote the expansion of economic scale and trade scale of member countries.The reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers also have a positive role in promoting China’s GDP and import and export scale,and the role of technical barriers to trade is particularly significant.Tariff reduction and trade facilitation will greatly increase China’s exports of food crops,resource extraction industries and non-ferrous metals to the member States.At the same time,imports of computers and electronic equipment,chemical raw materials,plastics and rubber products will shift from nonmember states to member States.The reduction of technical barriers to trade will shift China’s manufacturing industry from non-member countries to member countries.Finally,in view of the above conclusions,China can use the RCEP agreement to optimize the industrial and trade structure,promote domestic circulation,make up for technical shortcomings,open up both domestic and international markets,complete the upgrading of the industrial chain,and achieve high-quality development of economy,trade and industry. |
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