Uncertainty In Uncertainty:The Impact Of Probabilistic Product Selection Methods On Consumer Evaluation

In recent years,probabilistic sales have become increasingly widely used in the market,especially in industries such as railways,airlines,hotels,toys,and so on.In the past,the literature on probabilistic sales mainly focused on the supply side of enterprises.Some scholars have begun to pay attention to probabilistic sales from the perspective of consumers recently,but there has been no research on how probabilistic product selection methods affect consumer evaluation.This article aims to explore whether there are significant differences in consumers’ evaluation of probabilistic product selection methods(autonomous selection versus random selection)in the context of probabilistic sales,as well as the underlying psychological mechanisms that cause such differences,and under what circumstances such differences will change.To verify this series of questions,we designed three experiments based on expectation confirmation theory and S-O-R theory.Experiment 1 took online purchase of blind boxes as the consumption background,and found that consumers rated higher evaluation of random selection compared to autonomous selection.Experiment 2 verified the role of expectation level between probabilistic product selection methods and consumer evaluation.It was found that compared to random selection,consumers had higher expectations when choosing probabilistic products autonomously,thereby reducing the evaluation.Experiment 3 takes car rental as the consumption background,and designed a 2(Autonomous Selection vs.Random Selection)x 2(Known probability vs.Unknown probability)experiment,data reveals the moderating effect of known probability.Specifically,under the condition of knowing probability,the difference in consumer evaluation between autonomous selection and random selection will narrow.The value of this study is mainly to discuss the relationship between probabilistic product selection methods and consumer evaluation from a consumer perspective,providing reference for enterprises to optimize probabilistic product marketing strategies.