Research On The Influence Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty On Enterprise Investment Efficiency

This paper selects the financial data of non-financial A-share enterprises listed before 2007 to 2021 as research samples,and examines the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate investment efficiency in the context of monetary policy uncertainty.Enterprise investment efficiency is also an indicator that reflects the performance of the whole company’s future investment and operation as well as the overall profitability.From the perspective of the whole enterprise’s operating efficiency,enterprises can maintain the core advantages of industrial competition for a long time through the continuous improvement of investment efficiency,optimize and improve the rational allocation and utilization of strategic resources within the enterprise system,which is to achieve the maximum operating output and effect of the enterprise as a whole.For a long time,most of the relevant domestic scholars have paid attention to the comparative study from the perspective of analyzing the internal operation management of the enterprises themselves,the quality of accounting information or other external competitive environment,ignoring the investigation of the external monetary policy uncertainty and the actual impact on the overall investment efficiency of the whole enterprise.Although at the present stage,our country has been adhering to the prudent and appropriate external monetary policy.But uncertainty remains.After the large-scale outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,the healthy economic development model of the global economy has been greatly impacted.In order to quickly alleviate and deal with the adverse effects of the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis on China’s macro economic economy,the leaders of various governments have introduced a series of relevant social and economic policies to actively intervene.Now,faced with the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,the government has introduced more monetary policy tools to stabilize the business environment.On the other hand,although more and more monetary policy tools can more accurately control the market liquidity,market interest rate,etc.,there are still certain impacts on enterprises,and the timing of the policy will have different impacts,which will increase the difficulty for enterprises to judge the future economic policies.In this process,especially in the case of unfavorable policies,it is difficult for enterprises not to change their original expectations.In order to minimize the impact of policies on themselves,enterprises will mostly postpone the time of investment or reduce the scale of investment.In this context,in order to deeply discuss the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the investment efficiency of enterprises,four important questions need to be deeply discussed: In the face of frequent changes of monetary policy,what kind of changes will occur to the investment efficiency of enterprises in general? Did bank credit contribute to or inhibit this process? Are the non-state enterprises changing more than the state enterprises? Are non-eastern companies more responsive to changes in monetary policy than those in the more developed eastern regions? In the face of the above four problems,this paper conducted the following research:First of all,after reviewing relevant literature,this paper summarizes the research on the uncertainty of monetary policy,corporate investment efficiency and bank credit respectively,and finds that corporate investment efficiency is mainly studied from micro aspects such as financing constraints,characteristics of managers and changes of government officials.Most of the researches on macroeconomic policies are based on the monetary policy itself,and few have made in-depth studies on the impact of the uncertainty of monetary policy on the investment efficiency of enterprises.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influence of monetary policy uncertainty on investment efficiency through real option theory and asset unfeasibility and proposes hypotheses.Further,it analyzes the intermediary role of bank credit in this influence through information asymmetry,financing constraints and financial friction,and proposes corresponding hypotheses.Finally,according to our national conditions and the development of the east and west,we put forward the hypothesis of heterogeneity.Thirdly,based on A total of 16,716 research samples of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021,this paper conducts an empirical study and uses multiple regression model to test the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprise investment efficiency.Furthermore,the bank credit level is selected as the intermediary variable to test the intermediary effect and analyze the intermediary role of bank credit.Furthermore,by changing the key variables and comparing the fixed effects model and the random effects model,the results pass the robustness test.The paper further analyzes whether the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the investment efficiency of firms has heterogeneity for firms with different property rights and regional locations.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)When the uncertainty of monetary policy increases,it will promote the investment efficiency of enterprises,and for enterprises with excessive investment,the promotion effect of the uncertainty of monetary policy is greater than that of enterprises with insufficient investment.(2)When the bank credit level rises,it will reduce the investment efficiency of enterprises,and for enterprises with excessive investment,the inhibition effect is more intense.(3)The increase of monetary policy uncertainty will reduce the level of bank credit.The value is small but the relationship is significant.After bank credit is selected as the intermediary variable,the regression shows that the uncertainty of monetary policy will still promote the investment efficiency of enterprises,but the coefficient is lower than before,and the reduced part is the intermediary effect of bank credit.(4)From the perspective of equity nature,when facing the uncertainty of monetary policy,non-state-owned enterprises will pay more attention to the investment efficiency of enterprises.As state-owned enterprises are more likely to obtain bank credit,policy benefits will be more inclined to state-owned enterprises,better credit guarantee and so on,while non-state-owned enterprises mostly need to rely on themselves,so they will invest more cautiously.From a regional perspective,due to better reform and opening up results in the eastern part of our country,more abundant private capital,more developed transportation network,enterprises in the eastern region in the face of the uncertainty of monetary policy,have a better business environment and so on,the non-eastern region does not have such good conditions,so we have to improve the efficiency of enterprise investment significantly.Finally,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions:(1)Relevant departments should consider more long-term when formulating monetary policies,and minimize the adjustment times of monetary policies while ensuring the consistency of monetary policies.(2)Relevant departments should reduce the financing difficulties encountered in the operation of enterprises.Specifically,they can set up a special fund or reserve a part of special loans in the banking system.(3)Relevant departments should speed up the pace of capital market construction,but need to pay attention to improve the supervision mechanism.(4)Enterprises themselves can understand the general direction of national policies,cultivate talents,learn financial knowledge,and make reasonable use of local resources to make the business operation better and better.