A Study On Property Tax,House Price Fluctuations And Resident Consumption

Since 1998,with the acceleration of urbanization in China,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly,and housing prices have been rising as a result.The fluctuation of asset prices has led to the real estate industry’s increasing influence on microeconomic behavior decisions and macroeconomic stability and development.Therefore,"no speculation in housing" has become the general keynote of China’s real estate industry regulation and control.To this end,China’s governments at all levels have introduced several regulatory measures,implemented diversified housing loan policies and purchase restriction policies,and continued to accelerate the property tax legislation.Can these current or upcoming real estate regulation policies effectively alleviate housing price fluctuations? What is the impact of property tax and credit policies on housing prices? What is the impact of housing prices on residents’ consumption? Is it the wealth effect of rising housing prices or the house slave effect of buying a house that dominates residents’ consumption? This study analyzes these aspects.Firstly,this study describes the background of the selected topic,research significance,research method and research ideas,and briefly describes the innovation points and shortcomings of this study.Secondly,relevant literature from scholars at home and abroad is collected and read,and the literature on property tax and house price fluctuation,house price and residents’ consumption,and property tax and residents’ consumption are summarized.Further,the implementation of Shanghai and Chongqing for property tax pilot projects is briefly analyzed,followed by a local equilibrium model of property tax,credit policy and house prices based on the secondhand house transaction data in Shanghai from 2015 to 2021,and the impact of property tax and credit policy on house prices is analyzed,followed by data on house prices and local resident consumption in 31 provinces of China from 2012 to 2021 The empirical study is then conducted to explore the relationship between residential consumption and house price changes.Finally,the full study is summarized,conclusions are drawn,and policy recommendations are made based on China’s national conditions and the actual situation of real estate development.The results of the partial equilibrium analysis in Chapter 4 show that property tax and credit policies can effectively control the rise of house prices;however,even in the case of introducing property tax,the longer the period of credit easing is,the more favorable it is to the rise of house prices,while the increase of short-term mortgage interest rates helps to suppress house prices;if rents rise too fast in the short term,the expected impact of property tax on house prices will turn from negative to positive,which means that property tax cannot effectively play as an expectation management tool,and to a certain extent will reduce residents’ consumption;the longer the period of credit easing,the more favorable it is to rising prices;the lending restriction policy shows completely opposite regulatory effects in the short and long run;if the credit easing lasts longer,the more loanable funds households can obtain,which will further push up household debt expansion promoting an increase in housing demand,thus further pushing up house prices.The results of the regression analysis in Chapter 5show that house prices and residential consumption show a positive relationship,that is,rising house prices can promote residential consumption,so the wealth effect overtakes the house slave effect and dominates.Moreover,there are differences in the effects of house prices on residents’ consumption in different regions.In comparison,the western region has the highest degree of influence of house prices on per capita consumption expenditure,followed by the northern region,the central region,and finally the eastern region.