Commodity Residential House Price Volatility Diffusion Mechanism Research On Yangtze River Delta Region Key City

In recent years, Home price volatility spread has become the focus of wideattention of consumers and governments at all levels, academia also gradually in-depthresearch on the spread of housing price fluctuations. In the process of commodityresidential house price rise rapidly, we noticed that the commodity residential houseprice fluctuation is always the first produced in the area of social and economicdevelopment level is higher, which in turn affect the area surrounding the marketexpectations and trigger price fluctuations, and with the regionalization of city clustersgradually formed, housing prices in urban agglomeration between the diffusion effect ofcontinuous enhancement.Based on housing price fluctuations of the "ripple effect" theory, construct thespatial econometric model and represented by Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou10keycities in Yangtze river delta residential property prices from2003to2012panel data,from the regional dimension of the housing price fluctuations diffusion, further to theurban housing price fluctuations between the diffusion mechanism and exploration. Inthis paper, the main conclusions are the following:(1) in this paper, the domestic and foreign research on housing price volatilitydiffusion theory and method was summarized and comb, in the aspect of time and spaceof the housing price fluctuations in the study of diffusion, spatial econometric theoryand the method has better explanation and persuasion.(2) in this paper, the paper summarizes the research achievements of domestic andforeign scholars, the reasons for the formation of commodity housing price fluctuationscan be drawn from the diffusion mainly has the following eight aspects: familymigration, arbitrage trading and the search cost, transfer of wealth, space, the factors influencing residential property prices lead/lag relationships, city level and urbaneconomic fundamentals and expectations.(3) selection of10major cities as the research sample, Yangtze river delta and theglobal spatial autocorrelation index Moran’s I test sample space of the urban housingprice level in the space effect, the test results show that the Moran’s I index is0.3884,which indicates that the selected10sample cities housing prices exists significantspatial dependence.(4) based on the confirmed sample between urban residential price effect, on thebasis of the existence and the stepwise regression model parameters, and to determinethe housing price fluctuations and degree of diffusion path. Regression results show thatthe three cities of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou house prices showed a significantfluctuations between the diffusion effect, and these three cities for other cities housingprices is bigger also, the influence of other cities at the same time feedback of thesethree cities housing prices are also significant.