Research On The Influence Of Public Health Emergency To Macroscopical Economy Of Our Country

At the beginning of 2020,the novel coronavirus epidemic broke out globally,severely impacting both China and the world economy.It is worth thinking about how to resist the impact,develop rapidly and steadily in the crisis and seek a new sustainable growth path.In the context of traditional economic development facing many challenges and increasing uncertainties,this paper studies the impact of public health emergencies on macro-economy and evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal policy implementation based on the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.Due to the superiority of general equilibrium method in comprehensive analysis,this paper uses the input-output table of 2017 and other relevant data to compile the social accounting matrix,and on this basis,this paper builds a computable general equilibrium model(CGE)in line with China’s open economic environment.The impact of public health emergencies on the macro-economy of our country and the effectiveness of fiscal policy alleviating external shocks were evaluated by using general algebraic modeling system(GAMS)from the marginal propensity of residents to consume and the proportion of consumption in different industries,labor supply and demand and total exports under three different scenarios.The macroeconomic variables and the situation of each industry under different shocks and response policies are compared and analyzed in detail,and the economic resilience performance of 19 industries is measured by the fluctuation of the output level of each industry.Through the simulation results of CGE model and the measures of economic resilience of each industry,it can be found that in three different scenarios,GDP declines by 3.3,6.6 and 9.7 percentage points respectively.The impact of consumer demand shocks on GDP is the largest,and the impact of trade shocks on GDP is the smallest.Different economic entities and industrial sectors are also affected by the serious negative impact,among which the consumption level and the total amount of imports are affected by the most serious;Fiscal policy has a different degree of boosting effect on each economic subject and industry sector.The bigger the impact,the worse the boosting effect of fiscal policy,and the fiscal deficit is obviously aggravated.Through the analysis of the economic resilience of each industry,it is found that under different impact scenarios,the economic resilience of each industry fluctuates little.The average economic resilience of the secondary industry is the best,followed by the primary industry,and the tertiary industry is the worst.Although the tertiary industry has the worst average level of economic resilience,two of the top three industries with the best performance of economic resilience belong to the tertiary industry,In other words,industries within the tertiary industry have a greater degree of volatility in economic resilience.Therefore,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from five aspects: boosting consumption,stabilizing employment,enhancing trade convenience,strengthening economic resilience construction,and actively cultivating digital industry,so as to improve the resilience of China’s economy and achieve steady economic growth.