An Empirical Analysis Of The Influencing Factors On The Price Of Commercial Residential Housing During The Epidemic

The real estate industry in China,as a pillar industry that promotes urban construction and economic growth,also plays an important role in improving the quality of life and well-being of residents.According to the 17 th Report on Urban Competitiveness in China released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,the development of the real estate industry can contribute up to 25% to national economic growth.Housing,as a rigid demand for residents’ lives,presents a commercialization of the housing market in cities.Speculative housing purchases have led to a rapid rise in the price of commercial housing in major cities in various provinces across the country.The price growth of commercial housing is closely related to the well-being of residents,and excessive growth will also have a negative impact on the stable operation of the entire national economy.Firstly,it reviews the literature on the dynamics of influencing factors of residential commercial housing prices at home and abroad,and finds gaps in the research.Secondly,it analyzes the current development situation of China’s residential commercial housing market,including the price trend of residential commercial housing in recent years,the urban housing price income ratio,and the real estate policy regulation during the epidemic period.The results show that the price of residential commercial housing in China has increased significantly.Therefore,this article selects the average selling prices of residential commercial housing in 36 major cities in 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)of China in 2019 and2020 as the research object,and empirically analyzes the factors that affect the price increase of residential commercial housing during the epidemic period.In terms of specific operations,first introduce the relevant theoretical basis and literature research.Based on this,19 indicators were selected from the perspectives of supply and demand,and the stepwise regression method was used to screen variables that are more reliable for research.As a result,9 and 7 variable indicators were selected for 2020 and 2019,respectively.Secondly,using OLS and S estimates for 2020 data to explore the impact of outliers on the regression model,using mean shift penalty regression to drift outliers to participate in the regression equation,using bootstrap technology to infer the confidence interval of the regression coefficient for supplementary estimation,and making a comparative analysis of the results of two years to further explore the main factors affecting the price of residential commercial housing in China during the epidemic.The results showed that during the epidemic period,the promotion effect of "household deposit balance" and "per capita disposable income" on the price of residential commercial housing increased;The inhibitory effect of "completed housing area of real estate development enterprises" on the price of residential commercial housing has increased;"Residential land area","land area purchased by real estate development enterprises",and "general public budget expenditure(education)" all have different degrees and directions of impact on the price of residential commercial housing.