| In the context of food security,ensuring adequate supply of food crops and satisfying demand is an important cornerstone for the long-term and stable development of Chinese society.However,in the process of China’s rapid urbanization and industrialization,food security is faced with multiple difficulties.The expansion of urban space is eroding China’s precious cultivated land resources year by year.At the same time,under the development demand of agricultural economy,the planting quantity of cash crops is gradually increasing compared with that of food crops,which occupies the space of food production,and the land is becoming increasingly non-grain.All these lay potential risks for the realization of independent food security in China.Therefore,analyzing the evolution trend of agricultural land planting structure and exploring the internal mechanism of agricultural structure change will help guide the orderly return of food crop production and consolidate food production security.In this paper,the provinces of China were taken as the research area,and Arc GIS spatial analysis,convergence analysis,geographic detector and other methods were comprehensively used to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of agricultural land planting structure in China from2002 to 2020,as well as its differences and driving factors.On this basis,the corresponding agricultural land planting structure optimization strategy was proposed.Relevant research results were further enriched and improved to provide scientific reference for the adjustment of agricultural land planting structure in China’s provinces.The research results are as follows:(1)Arc GIS conducted a spatial analysis on the spatial structure of crop planting,and the research showed that the proportion of grain crops in the sown area of crops in China’s planting structure decreased significantly,while the proportion of cash crops in the sown area of crops increased.From 2002 to 2005,due to the influence of the policy of returning farmland to forest,the sown area of grain in most provinces decreased and the sown area of cash crops increased.From 2005 to 2014,as agricultural departments at all levels actively took various measures to improve the level of agricultural science and technology and agricultural services,the grain sown area in all provinces gradually changed from an increasing or decreasing state to an increasing state in most provinces,while the sown area of cash crops decreased.From 2014 to2020,the sown area of grain in all provinces decreased gradually,while the sown area of cash crops increased continuously.(2)Using the convergence analysis method of σ convergence,absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence model,the convergence characteristics of planting structure in time and space are analyzed respectively.The results of σ convergence and absolute β convergence show that the proportion of grain crops in the sown area of most provinces reaches the convergence state faster in the large spatiotemporal range,but the convergence rate is smaller,the finer the regional division,the more obvious the convergence characteristics.The western region is easier to achieve the steady-state of convergence than the central region.The conditional β convergence shows that from 2002 to 2020,the three major regions in China,East and West all converge through conditional β convergence,and the factors affecting the national conditional β convergence are the proportion of rural population,the total power of agricultural machinery,the output value of regional primary industry,grain output and grain per capita occupancy.The factors that passed the significance test of conditional β convergence in the eastern region were the proportion of rural population,rural per capita disposable income,the proportion of regional primary industry output value,the per capita share of grain and the gross regional product.The factors that passed the significance test of conditional β convergence in the central region were rural electricity consumption and grain per capita consumption.The factors that pass the significance test of conditional β convergence in western China include the proportion of rural population,rural electricity consumption and per capita consumption of grain.Under the same initial conditions,the spatial differentiation of planting structure in most provinces of China will gradually shrink over time.Compared with eastern and central regions,the spatial difference of planting structure in western region will shrink at a faster rate.The significant factors affecting the convergence of all provinces are different.(3)The driving factors affecting the change of planting structure were analyzed by using geographic detector.In different periods,the leading factors were roughly the same,and the primary factors affecting the change of planting structure were different.According to the single factor detection results in 2002,2008,2014 and 2020,per capita cultivated land area,disaster rate and urbanization level in early stage have relatively strong influence on the planting structure of non-grain.In the later period,the total area of household contracted cultivated land transfer,the total power of agricultural machinery,the cost of agricultural means of production,the ratio of urban and rural residents’ disposable income,and the average years of education in rural areas had more significant effects on the non-grain planting structure.The phenomenon of crop structure non-grain is the result of many factors.The interaction and detection results of driving factors in the four periods of 2002,2008,2014 and 2020 show that the interaction dominated by disaster disaster rate,arable land per capita,urbanization level and other factors gradually weakens over time.However,the interaction dominated by the ratio of urban and rural residents’ disposable income,the total area of farmland transferred under household contract and the total power of agricultural machinery gradually increased over time.In a period of time,the single-factor influence of the ratio of urban and rural residents’ disposable income on the disgrainization of planting structure is relatively weak,but its interaction with the total power of agricultural machinery and the level of urbanization has a significantly enhanced influence on the disgrainization of planting structure.Therefore,the gap of urban and rural residents’ disposable income is the main driving force of the disgrainization of planting structure..The trend of non-grainization of agricultural land planting structure is the result of multiple factors.The improvement of social and economic level increases human’s demand for diversified agricultural products.The government should proceed with the multi-dimensional approach of "man-land-industry-technology-protection" to reduce "non-grainization" and comprehensively deepen the layout of "food security" : Based on "people",we will provide independent guidance to increase income and improve intelligence,narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas,and build a mechanism for increasing farmers’ income.Improve farmers’ education level,improve farmers’ scientific and cultural cognition;On the basis of "land",large-scale planting should be guided by classification,urbanization should be promoted in an orderly manner,grain production conditions should be guaranteed,cultivated land potential should be vigorously tapped,land restoration and management should be strengthened,land transfer policies should be encouraged,and resource utilization efficiency should be improved.With "industry" as the contract,we should reduce the cost and gain market guidance,reduce the cost of agricultural means of production,increase the comparative benefits of grain growing,advocate market-oriented agriculture,and improve the industrialization level of planting industry.With "technology" as the path,intelligence into scientific guidance;Supplemented by "protection",orderly guidance of policy projects,optimization of incentive grain policies,improvement of agricultural efficiency,reduction of crop disaster rate,government-enterprise agricultural cooperation to offset risks. |
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