Research On The Risk Spillover Effect Of Low-carbon Transformation Related Industries On Banking Industry Under The Background Of "Dual Carbon" Strategy

Global climate change will bring risks to banks and other financial institutions and affect economic development and financial stability.On the road to resilient economic recovery,green development is at the core and a distinctive feature of Chinese-style modernization.With the proposal of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral goals,major banks actively responded to the low-carbon transition policy,actively carried out ESG information report disclosure,responded to climate transition risks,and explored the establishment of a climate risk management mechanism.Based on this background,this paper explores how my country’s low-carbon transition-related industries affect the stable development of the banking industry under the background of the "dual-carbon" strategy,clarifies the risk transmission path of low-carbon transition-related industries to the banking industry,and puts forward risk management policy recommendations.Provide reference for banks and other financial institutions to formulate effective transformation risk prevention and response measures.Based on the analysis of the risk spillover mechanism of low-carbon transformation-related industries to the banking industry as a theoretical basis,this paper clarifies the risk transmission path of low-carbon transformation-related industries to the banking industry under the background of "dual carbon".Further,through the Markov Regime Switching Model and TVP-VAR DY model under different risk states,empirically and quantitatively analyze the risk spillover effect of low-carbon transition-related industries on the banking industry,so as to reveal the relationship between China’s banking industry and climate-related industries.risk between.By comparing the Markov Regime Switching Model coefficients and Net Pairwise Directional Spillovers indices between the banking industry and low-carbon transition-related industries before and after the "dual-carbon" strategy,this paper can draw the following conclusions: First,from the risk area According to the analysis of the system state,the risk spillover effect of low-carbon transformation related industries on the banking industry in the high-risk state is generally significantly higher than that in the low-risk state.Second,from the comparative analysis before and after the proposal of the "dual carbon" strategy,the Net Pairwise Directional Spillovers index changed from negative to positive when the "dual carbon" strategy was proposed,and the Net Pairwise Directional Spillovers indices after the "dual carbon" strategy Relatively larger than before the "dual-carbon" strategy,indicating that the "dual-carbon" strategy has increased the risk spillover effect of various low-carbon transition-related industries on the banking industry,but it has eased over time.Third,from the analysis of the heterogeneity of industries related to low-carbon transformation,under the implementation of the "dual-carbon" strategy,the coal and thermal power industries in high-carbon industries have a relatively high risk spillover effect on banks,and the photovoltaic industry in low-carbon industries has a relatively high risk spillover effect on banks.Bank risk spillovers are high.On the whole,after the "dual-carbon" strategy was put forward,the risk spillover duration of high-carbon industries to the banking industry was relatively short-lived and had a relatively strong impact,while low-carbon industries were more durable and had less impact.