Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of Economic Sanctions Against Russia By Europe And America And Its Implications For China

In the 1990s,economic sanctions emerged on the international stage as a diplomatic tool.At first,the United Nations and many developed countries used economic sanctions to maintain world peace and international humanitarian law.With the deepening development of economic globalization and world multipolarity,the global interest distribution pattern under the international division of labor system is gradually changing,and the traditional global governance system cannot better meet the interests pursued by existing countries.Developed Western countries,led by the United States,have begun to use their competitive advantages to impose economic sanctions on international competition.Economic sanctions can not only help the initiating countries achieve "weaponization" of interest competition,but also the extremely strong "economic coercion" of economic sanctions can create enormous pressure on the target country’s economy,leading to further collapse of the world economic order and triggering humanitarian crises.With the deepening awareness of sanctions and the strengthening of economic ties among countri es around the world,the "double-edged sword" nature of economic sanctions has become increasingly apparent.The backlash brought about by economic sanctions reduces the effectiveness of economic sanctions.Western developed countries,led by the United St ates,have begun to shift their sanctions methods,and financial sanctions have gradually become the most common type of economic sanctions due to their advantages of "low cost","quick effectiveness,and difficulty in avoiding".The effectiveness of econo mic sanctions significantly depends on the use of financial sanctions.After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on February 24,2022,in a short time,Europe,the United States and other western countries have imposed thousands of sanctions on Russia.Russia has thus become the country that has suffered the most sanctions in history.Financial sanctions have led to a rapid decline in the Russian ruble exchange rate and a stock market crash,leading to serious capital flight.The financial market order in Russia is rapidly collapsing.The economic and trade sanctions imposed by countries such as Europe and the United States on Russia’s oil and gas trade have cut off Russia’s foreign exchange acquisition channels,causing a rapid decline in Russia’s economic development expectations and a period of economic turmoil.Russia then utilized its abundant oil and gas resources to implement strategic countermeasures,which also led to the economic decline of many sanctions initiator countries in Europe.This article analyzes and summarizes the basic logic of economic sanctions through research on relevant literature on economic sanctions.Subsequently,an analysis was conducted on the case of a new round of sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia in 2022,and the effectiveness of economic sanctions was considered:(1)the effectiveness of financial sanctions against Russia was significant;(2)The backfire of financial sanctions has reduced the effectiveness of sanctions;(3)Effectiveness of energy sanctions against Russia to suppress sanctions;(4)The Russian economic countermeasures have promoted the recovery and development of Russia’s domestic economy.In the empirical testing section,this article adopts a constant mean model,with 10 trading days before and after the event occurrence date [-10,10] as the event window,and the first 120 trading days before the last day of the event window period as the estimation window.By using STATA17 software for t-test,we study the exchange rate fluctuations of crude oil,US dollar against ruble,euro against ruble,pound against ruble,RMB against ruble,and Japanese yen against ruble,To further analyze the impact of financial sanctions on Russia’s trade and financial development,and provide empirical data support for the four conclusions proposed earlier.Based on case analysis and empirical research,propose corresponding countermeasures for China when facing sanctions in the future:(1)The risk of financial sanctions in Western countries in the future is relatively high,and China should systematically enhance its financial "immunity";(2)Advance layout to prevent capital flight from restricting economic development;(3)Strengthen regional cooperation and demand broader and closer economic cooperation relationships;(4)Deeply cultivate economic development,strengthen legal construction,and enhance the resilience of sanctions and proactive countermeasures.