The Evolution Of The Global Trade Network Pattern Of Rare Earth Products And Its Influencing Factors

Rare earths are listed as crisis minerals,key raw materials or strategic minerals by countries around the world,and are an important weight for China to strive for a favorable position in resolving trade disputes and trade negotiations.With the discovery,mining and integration of a large number of rare earth resources in other countries in the world,China is facing the competition and challenges of diversification of global rare earth supply and the"containment" and "deification" of China’s rare earth development by the United States and the West.China’s rare earth relative resource endowment advantage is gradually weakening.In addition,domestic rare earth consumption has increased year by year,and the dependence on rare earth imports has increased.Taking a variety of rare earth products trade networks as the research object,this paper aims to explore the evolution characteristics of the global trade networks pattern,the changes of China’s role and status in the network and the influencing factors of the network pattern from the perspective of rare earth products and complex networks,through social network analysis methods and exponential random graph models,in an effort to provide reference for China to strengthen the strategic research and judgment of the new pattern and new situation of global rare earth product trade,grasp the initiative in the new round of games,and enhance and maintain the competitive advantage of China’s rare earths.Firstly,based on the perspective of rare earth products,the international trade data of rare earth mineral substances(HS 253090),rare earth metals(HS 280530),cerium compounds(HS 284610),compounds of rare-earth metals(HS 284690),Ferro-cerium(HS 360690),Ferro-alloys(HS 720299)and permanent magnet(HS 850511)from 2009 to 2020 were selected from 2009 to 2020.The corresponding weighted trade networks and the weighted trade networks are constructed respectively.Secondly,the basic situation of the trading networks of rare earth products are analyzed:the trade networks of rare earth products in 2009 and 2020 were visually analyzed,and the overall pattern evolution characteristics and individual structure characteristics of the trade network of seven major rare earth products from 2009 to 2020 were compared and analyzed from the overall and individual levels by using social network analysis methods.Finally,the Exponential random graph model is used to analyze and explain the basic mechanism of rare earth products trade network formation:the effects of endogenous structural variables,exogenous node attribute variables and embedded network covariates on the formation of trade networks of seven rare earth products were comprehensively considered.It is found that:(1)the trade networks of rare earth mineral substances,cerium compounds,compounds of rare-earth metals,Ferro-cerium and permanent magnet tend to be close and complex,but the degree of trade networks of all rare earth products are low.Trade in permanent magnet is increasingly inclined to develop mutually beneficial trade links.All rare earth products trade networks,especially rare earth permanent magnet material trade network,have high trade convenience,transmission efficiency and aggregation.All rare earth products trade networks show the characteristics of "small world",and the networks are relatively fragile,but the characteristics of "small world" tend to weaken,making them more difficult to trade between countries.Rich Club Phenomenon is significant in trade networks of rare earth metals,rare-earth compounds,cerium compounds,Ferro-cerium and Ferroalloys.(2)Countries with a high degree of centrality are relatively fixed and mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States,export target countries are relatively scattered,and import source countries are relatively concentrated.In the trade network of all seven rare earth products,a small number of countries control a large amount of trade.The global trade network of permanent magnet is characterized by the network structure dominated by exporting countries.The trade networks of all rare earth products present a typical "coreedge" structure,and China has always been in an absolute core position in the trade network of rare earth metals,Ferro-alloys and permanent magnet.Germany’s direct and indirect influence advantages in the network tend to weaken,while China’s direct influence and indirect influence have increased.(3)Influences of mutualism,multi-connectivity,transitive closure,convergence and expansionary structural effects on trade network evolution of 7 rare earth products are significantly heterogeneous.