Research On The Current Situation And Influencing Factors Of China's Population Mobility Network Under The Epidemic

The epidemic prevention and control is a global human fight against the virus.Whether this will affect China's inter-provincial population flow network remains to be studied.Research on the characteristics and influencing factors of the population flow network in the context of the epidemic and in the normal period is important for grasping the changes in the law of population flow,enriching the theories and methods of population flow research,guiding the rational and orderly flow of population,optimizing the allocation of resources,and promoting the coordinated development of regional economy.Based on this,this article first builds an inter-provincial population flow network,divides the epidemic phases according to the release time of the epidemic prevention policy,and uses social network analysis methods to compare different phases to study the changes in the statistical characteristics of the network.Subsequently,the 2014 and2020 population flow data were used to construct inter-provincial population flow networks,and a simple exponential random graph model was used to compare and study the influencing factors of the formation of population flow networks.The main research contents and conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)Based on the Baidu map migration big data platform,first divide the epidemic prevention and control into multiple stages,and use network analysis to build a population flow network at each stage;Secondly,through the analysis of statistical characteristics such as the density and average degree of the network at each stage,we can see that the epidemic prevention and control measures have a significant inhibitory effect on population movements,and thus have a significant effect on curbing the spread of the epidemic;Subsequently,through the analysis of the centrality of each stage of the network,it can be seen that the population flow control capacity of a province and city is determined by the degree centrality and the intermediary centrality of the province and city;Finally,using the block model analysis method to divide the network at each stage,the research shows that before and after the epidemic,the degree of correlation between the members of the Northeast plate weakened,and the internal and outward correlation of the members decreased.There is no change in the trend of connecting the Central and Western,South China and Southwest plates to the East China plate.The Northwest Plate has had a good epidemic prevention and control effect,and the spillover of other plates to the Northwest Plate has increased.(2)Use the monitoring data of the floating population released by the National Health and Construction Commission in 2014 to build a 2014 inter-provincial population flow network.Use the population flow data of Baidu's migration big data platform to build an inter-provincial population flow network in 2020.Combining the previous literature and the availability of data,choosing from the three major aspects of network endogenous factors,actor attributes,and exogenous situational factors,alternative explanatory variables are set.Then,the QAP correlation analysis method is used to construct a difference matrix to test the explanatory variables that have correlation with population mobility to determine the explanatory variables that are finally included in the model.Finally,use the Statnet package of R software to estimate the parameters of the two-year ERGM model.After obtaining the estimated results,a comparative analysis shows that the unchanging conclusions have a certain degree of transmission of inter-provincial population flow,but the two-way flow is not obvious.In terms of population,the greater the permanent population in the outflow area,the more likely the population is to outflow.In terms of economy,the higher the per capita GDP of the inflow area,the stronger the ability to attract the population.The higher the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries in the inflow area,the stronger the ability to attract the population.In terms of employment,the higher the unemployment rate in the outflow area,the more the population tends to outflow.On the contrary,the higher the unemployment rate in the inflow area,the more it hinders the inflow of population.In terms of public resources and services,the population tends to flow into provinces,regions and cities with better public environments.The new conclusions obtained through comparison are that after experiencing the epidemic,people's pursuit of health has become increasingly important,and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control is vital to the population flow within provinces,regions and cities and between provinces.