Research On The Dynamic Impact Of Soybean Industry Information Disclosure On The Futures And Spot Markets

Soybean,as an important strategic agricultural product in China,must rely on the international supply and has strong price volatility.They are related to national food security and require price discovery through the forward market.The price of soybeans in international trade is usually based on the transaction futures in CBOT.The USDA reports issued by the USA will guide the price of CBOT soybean forward.The US Department of Agriculture reports frequent occurrences of erroneous data that have caused sharp fluctuations in soybean market prices.The uncertainty between future China and America and the possible misleading of the US Department of Agriculture report have greatly increased the risk of soybean imports in my country.Now the appearance of new forward market and cash market in soya industry and the changes in the global soya business associate seem to provide new opportunities for my country to grasp the international pricing power of imported soybeans.First,the global soybean supply pattern has undergone fundamental structural changes,and China’s over-reliance on US genetically modified soybeans has changed.Second,the diversification of information disclosure subjects impacts the authoritative position of the US Department of Agriculture’s message release.Third,China’s soybean forward market continues developing.The DCE allows soybeans for delivery of genetically modified soybeans to be delivered gradually active.The new contract adjustments include North and South American soybeans into the scope of delivery standard products.The true compresence of the international soya trade situation makes sense to enhancing China’s right to speak in the world’s soybean market.This article discusses the spillover effect of government soybean industry message revealed on soybean market prices in the side of message sources and quality.First of all,to find the formation mechanism of the present global soya transactional price,teasing the condition of worldwide soya production,transaction and pricing.Then,in order to discover the dominant market in the formation of international soybean prices,the VAR model,Granger test and TVP-VAR model is used to reveal the transfer characteristics of CBOT soya forward,the DCE soya No.2 futures,the US soya spot,the South American soya cash,and the price of cash soya.Finally,select the reports of the Ministry of Agriculture of America,Brazil,and Argentina,compare the countryspecific heterogeneity and content heterogeneity of its information disclosure horizontally.And use a linear model with time-varying parameters to analyze the impact of industrial information disclosure in major soybean producing countries on worldwide soya prices.The research reveal that the USDA report is still meaningful in the worldwide soya industry message revealed,and is a weather vane for the operation of the futures market.The industry information disclosure of other major producing countries is not substitutable.It also plays the part for America in the worldwide agricultural product market.Foundation.CBOT soybean futures still have a strong spillover effect and guiding force on DCE Soybean No.2 futures and soybean trade prices.It is a representative of international soybean prices,and its position as a global soybean futures pricing center is difficult to shake in the short term.After the modification of the DCE Soybean No.2 futures contract,trading has gradually become active,and the linkage with the price of CBOT soybean futures has increased.It has also begun to play a role in price discovery in cash agora,especially with the strengthening of the price link with imported soybeans from South America.The article believes that to change the situation that my country’s soybean trade volume is large but the voice is weak,the soybean forward trading agora should be improved,the main soybean producing area information collection platform should be established,and the “Belt and Road”proposal should be used to realize the CNY-denominated exchange rate between China and South America Soybean trading mechanism.