Study On The Export Potential Of Agricultural Products In Shandong Province Under The New Development Pattern

The export of agricultural products is of great significance to implementing the rural revitalization strategy,deepening the supply-side structural reform of agriculture and increasing farmers’ incomes.In 2021,Shandong’s agricultural exports reached 123.8 billion yuan,ranking first among all provinces and cities in China and ranking first for 23 consecutive years.However,there are still some problems in Shandong’s agricultural export trade,such as insufficient competitiveness,insufficient level of agricultural industrialization and trade barriers.At the same time,in the face of the new trend of global industrial and supply chain restructuring,China’s economic and social development is facing new challenges,in this context,the emergence of a "new development pattern".The connotation of the new development pattern is to take the domestic big cycle as the main body and promote the domestic and international double cycle.Its core meaning can be expressed as speeding up and realizing the cultivation and mining of the domestic domestic market by making full use of the advantages of the super-large domestic market,so as to promote the transformation,optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.At the same time,the multilateral trading system should be firmly upheld.To accelerate the integration of domestic economic development and economic globalization,so as to realize the complementarity and mutual promotion of domestic and international circulation,its essence is the upgrading and deepening of the development strategy in the current development stage.Therefore,to explore the potential of Shandong’s agricultural export trade under the new development pattern is beneficial to fully stimulate the internal power of Shandong’s agricultural export trade,and then continuously improve the competitiveness of Shandong’s agricultural products in the international market.On the basis of the above research purposes,this paper collects and summarizes the current domestic and foreign research on agricultural export trade,and analyzes the current situation of agricultural export trade in Shandong Province under the new development pattern by combining the absolute advantage theory,comparative advantage theory,resource endowment theory and new trade theory.It also compares existing measures of trade potential.Secondly,based on the data of agricultural export trade in Shandong Province from 2012 to2021,a stochastic frontier gravity model was constructed to empirically analyze the potential and influencing factors of agricultural export trade in Shandong Province under the new development pattern.The results show that under the new development pattern,the potential value of agricultural export trade of Shandong Province with the United States,the European Union,South Korea and Russia is more than 0.8,which belongs to the potential pioneering type,while the potential value of Shandong Province with Japan,ASEAN,Canada,Australia,Africa and other countries and regions is less than 0.8,which belongs to the huge potential type.In terms of the influencing factors of Shandong’s agricultural export trade under the new development pattern,the per capita GDP of Shandong Province is positively correlated with the per capita GDP of the importing country,the population size of the importing country and the agricultural trade flow,while the geographical distance between the population size of Shandong province and the capitals or regional centers of other countries is negatively correlated.In the trade inefficiency,the two variables of free trade organization and trade freedom inhibit the trade inefficiency,while the tariff level promotes the trade inefficiency.From the perspective of exporters,the export potential of category 03(fish and fish products)and category 05(vegetables and fruits)increased significantly.From the overall perspective,although the export potential of major agricultural products in Shandong Province showed a downward trend in individual years,the total export trade of various agricultural products still maintained an increasing trend in the ten years from 2012 to 2021.Therefore,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the aspects of cultivating the industrial competitive advantage of Shandong’s agricultural products,promoting the export-oriented agricultural construction of Shandong Province,optimizing the market structure of Shandong’s agricultural products export and expanding the channels of Shandong’s agricultural products export trade,so as to provide help to the development of Shandong’s agricultural products export trade and the economic growth of Shandong Province.