Research On The Influence Mechanism Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On The Profitability Of Chinese Manufacturing Export Enterprises

Under the current tide of economic globalization,various countries have carried out division of labor and cooperation in different links of the industrial chain based on their own advantages,which makes the economic development of a country largely dependent on the economic cooperation with other countries.In the process of economic cooperation,there is not only benefit sharing,but also risk sharing.In order to better adapt to the trend of economic globalization and more rationally face the challenges and risks brought by the process of economic globalization,many countries often adjust their trade policies frequently to meet various requirements in the process of economic globalization.As each country adjusts its trade policy based on its own level of economic development,this will increase the uncertainty of global trade policy to some extent.The main profit source of Chinese manufacturing export enterprises is international export business,and the development of international export business is greatly affected by the uncertainty of trade policy,so the study of trade policy uncertainty is very important for the profitability of Chinese export enterprises.Therefore,this paper deeply studies the relationship between the uncertainty of Chinese trade policy and the profitability of Chinese manufacturing export enterprises.Specifically speaking,this paper mainly studies the following aspects of the problem.Firstly,this paper extensively discusses the theories and literature related to trade policy uncertainty and the profitability of China’s manufacturing export enterprises,and on this basis,the influence mechanism of China’s trade policy uncertainty on the profitability of manufacturing export enterprises is deeply discussed.On the basis of the theory,this paper also makes use of the database of Chinese industrial enterprises,the database of tariff download facility of WTO,the import and export database of China Customs and the import and export tariff database of the United States and China,and makes a quasi-natural experiment at the time when China joins WTO.The positive method of DID combines theoretical research and positive analysis and scientifically analyzes the specific impact of trade policy uncertainty on the profitability of our manufacturing export enterprises.Through the combination of theory and empirical research,the following main conclusions are drawn: 1.Manufacturing export enterprises with a greater reduction in trade policy uncertainty have a greater increase in profitability,while manufacturing export enterprises with a smaller reduction in trade policy uncertainty have a relatively small increase in profitability.But the decline in trade policy uncertainty has generally boosted the profitability of China’s manufacturing exporters.2.After a series of validity and robustness tests on the above research conclusions,such as controlling industry time trend,placebo test,expected effect test,replacement of core explanatory variable measurement method,etc.,the conclusions are still valid.3.The impact of decreasing trade policy uncertainty on the profitability of China’s manufacturing export enterprises is heterogeneous in terms of enterprise ownership,administrative level of the location of enterprises and financing constraints of enterprises.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward higher suggestions to deal with the uncertainty of trade policies from micro,meso and macro levels,so that export enterprises can better survive and develop in the international market with constantly changing trade policies,and at the same time provides a theoretical basis for the decision-making of Chinese manufacturing import and export enterprises.。...