Trade Policy Uncertainty And Export Dynamics Of Intermediate Goods Manufacturers

The reality is that the re-adjustment of the central-periphery structure in the context of "re-globalization" aggravates the uncertainty of global trade policy.In view of the fact that the growth of global international trade in the past four decades largely depends on the complexity of intermediate production network,the impact of uncertainty on intermediate production enterprises is particularly worth studying.Based on the extended theoretical analysis of the Melitz and Ottaviano model,this paper studies the impact of the reduction of trade policy uncertainty on the export dynamics of intermediates,using the database of Chinese industrial enterprises,China customs import and export database and WITS global tariff database from 2000 to 2006.The results show that: after the uncertainty of trade policy decreases,the intermediate manufacturers will expand the range of export products,disperse the product concentration and reduce the product quality at the enterprise level.The higher the efficiency level,the greater the marginal increase of product range,the greater the degree of product concentration and dispersion,and the greater the reduction of product quality.The greater the gap in the technological frontier of the industry,the greater the increase in the scope of enterprises’ export products,and the lower the concentration of core products.In general,the production enterprises of intermediate products in trade show the phenomenon of expanding the product range and decreasing the concentration of core products to a greater extent,and the effect of quality innovation is more obvious.The dynamic change of export after the decrease of trade policy uncertainty is mainly caused by state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.Among them,state-owned enterprises have a stronger willingness to innovate in product quality after the decline of uncertainty.Reducing trade policy uncertainty is an important support for promoting the development of china-centered global intermediate production network.