Evolution And Multi-Scenario Simulation Of Development Intensity Of Construction Land In Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos Region Under The Background Of High-Quality Development

With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid development of economy and society,the development intensity of construction land is increasing,which brings challenges to the utilization of land resources and environmental and ecological protection.In order to ensure the rational and efficient use of construction land and make the regulation and control of the development intensity of construction land become an effective means to achieve the refinement and quality of land scale,it is necessary to further study the related content of the development intensity of construction land.As an important urban agglomeration for highquality development in the Yellow River Basin,the efficient utilization of regional construction land resources is very important to achieve sustainable development.Therefore,this paper takes each banner county in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region as the evaluation unit to measure the development intensity of construction land from 2000 to 2020.Exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)is used to study the evolution of the spatial pattern of construction land development intensity.Meanwhile,the driving mechanism affecting the evolution of construction land development intensity is analyzed by using geodetector method.On this basis,the PLUS model is used to further analyze the trend of construction land under different development scenarios in the study area,and the corresponding development strategies and countermeasures are proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the past 20 years,the expansion rate and area change of construction land in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region are different in different periods,and the change of the total scale of construction land in each banner county generally shows a trend of first rising and then decreasing.From 2015 to 2020,the expansion rate and area of construction land reached the highest,which was mainly affected by national policies such as the Western Development strategy and a series of key infrastructure construction projects.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the overall development intensity of construction land in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region showed an upward trend,rising from 0.3000 to 0.3562;The agglomeration capacity and scale of the development intensity of construction land change with the distance from the city center.The more we go to the city center,the greater the development intensity of construction land,and the smaller the vice versa.(3)The regional difference degree of construction land development intensity in each banner county in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region showed a slow decreasing trend on the whole,and the coefficient of variation decreased from 0.535 in 2000 to 0.438 in 2020;It shows that the coordination of construction land planning and management in Hubao-e area has been improved to a certain extent.The areas with high development intensity of construction land show the spatial distribution characteristics of three central points: Hu,Bao and E.(4)The results of Moran’s I index of construction land development intensity show that during the whole study period,the spatial similarity values of banner counties(districts)in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos region show aggregation and a significant positive correlation in space.GetisOrd Gi* index results show that the hot spots and sub-hot spots of construction land development intensity are mainly distributed in the urban center and surrounding areas,and the cold spots and sub-cold spots are mainly in the border counties.(5)From the perspective of influencing mechanism of construction land development intensity,social and economic factors are the main core factors driving the evolution of construction land development intensity in the study area,followed by transportation accessibility factors,and natural factors have relatively low influence on the development intensity of construction land in the study area.The interaction between the driving factors in each year showed double factor or nonlinear enhancement.(6)Compared with the natural development scenario without policy constraints,under the high-quality development scenario under the bottom line constraints,the development of construction land in HohhotBaotou-Ordos region is more reasonable,and the development of construction land is more balanced in terms of spatial layout,quantity and scale,and construction land intensity,satisfying the coordinated and highquality development among regional food security,ecological security,and social economy.