A Study On The Spatio-temporal Evolution Of Construction Land And Growth Trend In Dalian

With the development of urbanization， cities around the world are in rapiddevelopment。Urban territory scope is expansion，the speed of construction land’s expansionhas accelerated，which brought about a series of questions，like the reduce of arable land，or environmental degradation。Because of the revitalization of old industrial bases，and the construction of the coastaleconomic zone，currently，Dalian is at an unprecedented favorable development opportunity，but the poor conditions of the soil resources in Dalian also should be taken seriously，because，with the rapidly expansion of the city，severe shortage of land which going to befaced will be more seriously。 So the significance of the study on construction landspatio-temporal evolution and growth trend is important and realistic。This paper，basics on the existing condition analysis of Dalian，quantitative analyze theCity center’s construction land spatio-temporal evolution，where is the main distribution areaof construction land，By use the correlation analysis and gray relational analysis to elect maindriving factors，then using the gray forecasting method to predict the factors，and finallythrough the BP-neural network to predict the future construction land。Concluded that: fromthe spatial evolution，showing the trend of the expansion to the northeast-southwest directionin future，Dalian urban area is still in the stage of expansion，but accompanying with the stageof fill in；compaction index of urban land is still will drop，but the speed has slowed；the mostimportant driving factor is demographic factors，the future growth of urban construction landin Dalian will be even more severe as the population growth and economic development。...