The Influence Of Decision Types And The Degrees Of Ambiguity On Uncertain Decision-making

In the face of the different types of internal management decisions and the uncertainty of the external economic environment of enterprises,examining the impact of different decision types and degree of uncertainty on management decisions can enable enterprises to exploit their strengths and avoid weaknesses in management practice.Past research has shown that individual and group decision-making have their own advantages and disadvantages.However,from the perspective of management practice,the specific mechanism of different types of decision-making applied to the process of decision-making by management decision-makers is not yet known.In addition,decision-making is subject to uncertainty,which is divided into risk and ambiguity.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of different decision types and ambiguity on uncertain decision-making.Based on Knight’s uncertainty theory and ambiguity aversion theory,the influence of different decision types and ambiguity’s degrees on participants’ uncertain decisionmaking was explored through experimental research with the help of event-related potential method.The experiment recruited 60 college students.The experimental design is a within-subjects design of 2(decision type: personal decision,double decision)*3(ambiguity: 0,24%,50%)*3(amount size: 50 RMB,70 RMB,100 RMB).The experimental paradigm uses the classic "lottery selection task" of risk decision research.Individuals are required to choose between a variable yield lottery and a fixed yield of $30.Participants need to complete two lottery selection tasks.The first lottery selection task needs to be completed independently by the participant;The second lottery selection task needs to be completed with acquaintances,and in the two-player decision-making task,if the two people choose different tickets,they/they need to repeat the selection until the decision is the same.In this study,the ERP research method was used to collect EEG signals when the subjects performed the experimental tasks.The behavioral results show that,firstly,a significant main effect of ambiguity is found.When the ambiguity degree was 50%,the subject’s uncertainty preference was significantly lower than that when the ambiguity degree was 0 and 24%.In addition,a significant interaction effect was found between decision type and amount.When the amount of the revenue of the uncertain lottery was 50 yuan,the uncertainty preference of the subjects under personal decision-making was significantly higher than that of the subjects under the double decision-making.The EEG results show that,firstly,when the ambiguity’s degree is 50%,the amplitude of the N100 and P200 components caused by the ambiguity’s degree is significantly greater than that of the N100 and P200 components with a ambiguity’s degree of 0 and 24%.Secondly,when making individual decisions,the amplitude of FRN and P300 components caused by the feedback results is significantly greater than that of FRN and P300 components under two-person decision-making.The results of the association analysis of behavior and EEG showed that: firstly,the N100 and P200 components affected by the ambiguity effect had a significant negative effect on the subject’s uncertain preference,that is,the larger the N100 and P200 components affected by the ambiguity effect,the lower the subject’s uncertainty preference.Moreover,the FRN component affected by the decision type effect and the amount size effect was positively correlated with the subject’s individual uncertainty preference,that is,the larger the FRN amplitude,the greater the subject’s uncertainty preference,and the P300 component affected by the decision type effect and the ambiguity effect was positively correlated with the subject’s uncertainty preference,that is,the larger the P300 amplitude,the greater the subject’s uncertainty preference;Finally,after we put FRN and P300 into the same regression model,the effect of P300 was not significant,but the effect of FRN was still significant.In summary,the results show that: first,the degree of ambiguity is negatively correlated with uncertain preference and positively correlated with ambiguity aversion,but not with the increase of ambiguity degree and monotony of ambiguity aversion;Second,the type of decision can only affect decisions with close expected values,and individual decisions will be more risky and choose radical solutions;Third,the degree of ambiguity affects uncertainty preference through the early components N100 and P200 components in the early evaluation stage,but the decision type affects uncertainty preference through the FRN components in the feedback evaluation stage.In conclusion,this study uses the method of event-related potentials to find that the high ambiguity of uncertain decision-making reduces the individual’s uncertain preference through the cognitive component in the early evaluation stage,and the individual decision-making affects the uncertain preference of the option with similar expected value through the cognitive component in the feedback evaluation stage,and ultimately makes the individual decision-making behavior more risky.This study enriches the research results in the field of uncertain decision-making of different decision-making types,proves that the relationship between ambiguity degree and fuzzy disgust is not a simple monotonic increase,clarifies the mechanism of variable decision-making behavior change of subjects in different decision-making types,and provides ideas for revealing individual behavior in management decision-making,which has important theoretical and practical significance.