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Uncertain Decision-making Mechanism Based On The Decision-making Neuroscience Research

Posted on:2010-10-24Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:L C ShuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360275969929Subject:Management Science and Engineering
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Decision Neuroscience is an emergency interdisciplinary research area,which has been attracted many scholars from management,economics,psychology and neuroscience working together to looking for the neural basis of decision making.It is also a new research area of management science.The aim of decision neuroscience is to combine the research of behavior decision making and neuroscience.It is the extension of behavior decision making,which can show the characteristics of decision making from neural level with the studying of "block box" in traditional decision science,read the process of decision behavior,and explore the neural mechanism of decision making in order to build more predictable decision models.Simon has proposed that "decision is the heart of management,management is composed by a series of decisions,management is decision making".Decision making under uncertainty is the core of decision making theory research.Kahneman got the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics because of his contributions to decision making under uncertainty from the psychology cognitive perspective.In this study,the process of decision making under uncertainty as research object, using the experimental method of decision neuroscience and events related potential (ERP) as research tools,we design four experiments about decision making under uncertainty to study the neural basis of decision making under uncertainty.Taking the advantage of high resolution of the time(accurate to milliseconds) of ERP,the study focuses on the neural activity of decision making from decision makers facing the decision situations to make decisions.The results shows that decision process of uncertainty can be divided into ambiguity information processing and risk information processing and decision attitude which can be indexed by the ERP components,and decision making under ambiguity and risk have differences in the process of decision making under uncertainty;emotions have adjustment function on decision making under uncertainty which can be showed by the differences of ERP components. According to the ERP components with various stages of the process time and quantitative relationship between them,behavior related data analysis,and conbining neuroscience,decision science,congintive science,and behavior decision making related research outcomes,the mechanism of decision making under uncertainty based on decision neuroscience is discussed and the series of research conclusions are as followings: (1) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the ambiguity information is processed unconsciously before the risk information,which can be indexed by the ERP component P2.The component P2 stands for ambiguity information detection in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of P2 is sensitive to the degree of decision information missing.The amplitude of P2 in decision making under certainty and risk is larger than that of ambiguity and there is no significant difference between them.The amplitude of P2 is decreased by the uncertainty information ascending in the decision making under ambiguity,but the amplitude of P2 is not sensitive to the uncertainty information fluctuating in the decision making under risk.The ambiguity information is processed firstly in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The degree of decision information lacking is crucial to this process.(2) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the risk information is processed consciously after the ambiguity information,which can be indexed by the ERP component N2.The component N2 stands for risk information process which elicits decision conflict in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of N2 is sensitive to the degree of uncertainty from risk information.The amplitude of N2 in decision making under ambiguity is larger than that of risk and that of risk is larger than that of certainty.In decision making under risk,the more the uncertainty of risk information,the larger the amplitude of N2,but the amplitude of N2 is not sensitive to the degree of uncertainty information.The risk information process elicits decision conflict which nay be influenced by ambiguity information leading to higher decision conflict.(3) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,decision attitude is formed,which can be indexed by the ERP component P3.The component of P3 stands for aversion or avoidance attitude facing uncertainty.The amplitude of P3 in decision making under ambiguity and risk is less than that of certainty and there is no significant difference between them.In decision making under ambiguity,the degree of uncertainty information do not elicit the variance of P3 amplitude.So does decision making under risk.Contrast to certainty decision making,decision making under ambiguity and risk both elicit aversion or avoidance decision attitude,moreover,the decision attitude between ambiguity and risk do not have significant difference.(4) Emotion modulates the process of decision making.The ERP components in the process of decision making under uncertainty like P2,N2,P3 is modulates by the valence of prime emotions.Emotion causes decision bias in the detection of ambiguity information,modulates the decision conflict elicited by risk information processing which reflect the cognitive control of decision bias,and influences the attitude to decision making under uncertainty.Emotion has different modulation effect between decision making under ambiguity and risk.Among them,negative fear emotion has the biggest influence on ambiguity decision making.Fear emotion easy to cause the perception bias in processing ambiguity information,weakens the cognitive control of risk information processing,increases the aversion or avoidance attitude to uncertainty,and finally decreases decision performance.The innovation of this study is as following:(1) In this study,using the process of decision making as research object, focusing on the information process and attitude cognitive of decision making under uncertainty,and employing the tool of decision neuroscience,we study the uncertainty decision making from behavior level to neural level and open the "block box" of traditional decision making.Using ERP,we found that the ERP components P2,N2, P3 responding to ambiguity information process,risk information process and decision attitude formation which makes up the research of decision process from time dimension in traditional decision science.Further more,ambiguity and risk information process is responding to systeml and sytem2 in dual system theory of decision,verified Kahneman et al(2002),Camerer et al(2005) and Sanfey & Chang (2008) 's view that decision is made by dual systems.The results also enriched the studies of decision neuroscience.(2) From decision neuroscience view,we found that decision making under uncertainty including ambiguity information and risk information process.Ambiguity information was processed before risk information,risk information elicits decision conflict.Both of them have great effect to decision behavior.This results verified Tverksy & Fox(1995),Fox & Tverksy(1998),Wu & Gonzalez(1999),Kilka & Weber(2001) 's researches using two stages weighting function model modeling ambiguity decision.Moreover,the process of ambiguity information is related to unconscious automatic process.The results show that ambiguity and risk are different in neural process.(3) Emotion has the modulation effect to the process of decision making under uncertainty,the phase of risk information process has an important role in this modulation.This conclusion found that emotion as the decision facilitator and emotion causes decision bias are not conflict.They make effect in different phase of decision process.This result also verified the research related with emotion and decision performance using behavior experiments indicating that while decision makers have stronger experience of emotion,the higher decision performance do.We give an explanation from decision neuroscience.
Keywords/Search Tags:Decision making under uncertainty, Emotion, Decision neuroscience, Event-related potential
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