Impact Of Macroeconomic Changes On Corporate Credit Risk In The 5G Industrial Chain:Evidence From China

As an integral part of modern economic growth,ICT plays an irreplaceable role today.With the development of ICT to date,5G has become the hottest topic in recent years,with 5G deployments starting on a global scale and 5G technology sets to make a huge contribution to global economic growth.The Chinese government has also made the construction of "Digital China" an important strategic decision.The official commercial launch of 5G in China in 2019 means that China is entering the 5G era,and the 5G industry chain is being optimized and matured.However,China is facing a slowdown in economic growth,a volatile international external environment,and a trade war between China and the United States,especially a trade war between China and the United States that imposes a technological blockade on China’s 5G industry.Companies in the 5G industry chain are facing a highly volatile macroeconomic environment,and it is necessary to strengthen credit risk management.In this article,20 companies in the 5G industry chain listed on the Chinese stock exchange are selected to measure their corporate credit risk using the modified KMV method,with the distance of corporate default as the explanatory variable.The regression equation is constructed with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP,money supply,consumer price index(CPI),RMB-USD exchange rate,dummy variable indicating US-China trade war as explanatory variables and relevant micro variables as control variables.The results are shown as followed:(1)The management level of enterprises in China’s 5G industry chain varies widely.(2)GDP,money supply,CPI and dummy variables have an impact on the credit risk of listed Chinese 5G enterprises,with GDP and money supply having a greater impact.(3)The regression results of the dummy variables show that the trade war between the US and China has an impact on the enterprises in the 5G industry chain in China.Banks,corporate bondholders,and other creditors should strengthen their monitoring of the macro economy,pay close attention to the relationship between the macro economy and corporate credit risk,and fully consider industry characteristics as well as the characteristics of the enterprises themselves for the purpose of reducing default rates.Enterprises themselves should also pay attention to changes in the macro-economy and macro-policies,strengthen their own management level,actively formulate strategies suitable for their development,and appropriately change their business structure to suit market demand.China has not yet established a sound credit system for the 5G industry chain and lacks a database of company defaults,which can lead to inadequate forecasting of future credit risk and make it difficult for banks and other creditors to monitor defaults,and a more accurate risk warning mechanism and database of company defaults should be established.