A Study On Credit Risk Of Chinese SMEs’ Based On Macroeconomics Factors

SMEs has injected vitality for China’s economic growth,they play a pivotal role in the development of China’s market economy and the national economy,they not only contribution to the growth of GDP,provide lots jobs,but also contribute to the sustained and rapid development of our economy.However,in the development of SMEs,it will encounter many difficulties,financing is a problem that always restricted its development,which not only because of their own shortcomings,but also subject to macro-economic aspects.In order to make the smooth development of SMEs suffer in the significant changes of the macroeconomic,relevant departments and investors can timely response measures to mitigate the crisis of SMEs,at the same time reduce the risk caused by investments in SMEs.this paper is start from the perspective of macroeconomic to study the SMEs’ credit risk.Due to the availability of unlisted SMEs’ data limitations,the SMEs in this article are selected in China’s A share market.CPV is a model for the study of a single or multiple debtors by the model of macroeconomic factors,and this paper is to study the SMEs’ credit risk form the macroeconomic,so reference the CPV model macroeconomic factors model in this paper.However,in the use of CPV model macroeconomic factors,we need default rates of SMEs,while we can’t directly obtain the default rate data for SMEs,based on the characteristics of the sample we choose in this study,after comparative analysis of various models that can calculate default rates,the paper selected KMV model to calculate default rates of SMEs,and then on this basis,use the macroeconomic factors model to study the impact of macroeconomic factors on SMEs’ credit risk,finally identified the most significant macroeconomic factor which impact on SMEs’ credit risk.The research indicate that SMEs are greatly subject to macroeconomics’ impact,especially by one-year lending benchmark deposit rate spreads,exchange rates and the battle KLCI,and the impact of these macroeconomic variables on default rates can emerge in the quarter,affecting one-year benchmark lending rate is also the season that can emerge;affect GDP growth,expenditure growth rate and foreign direct investment growth of default rate to appear to be lagging a quarter out;the consumer price index for the default rate to lag two quarters.After analysis these effects in-depth,from macroeconomic policy,monetary policy and foreign policy to put forward relevant policy recommendations.