Research On Horizontal Dispatching Of Emergency Supplies Based On Reliability Principle

The reliability of the dispatching system directly affects the timeliness and quality of the emergency material dispatching work.The reliability of the emergency material dispatching system can not only identify the weak points of the system,but also assist in other aspects of emergency repair.Because of the uneven distribution of resources among disaster sites,poor information flow and susceptibility to secondary disasters in the actual emergency relief process,it is necessary to consider the dynamic changes in the demand for emergency materials under actual circumstances while ensuring the reliable operation of the entire emergency dispatch system.If we rely solely on vertical material dispatching,it is difficult to meet all emergency needs in a short period of time.In order to better respond to new problems caused by new changes in emergency material demand,there is an urgent need to propose a dispatching method with higher adaptability for emergency services to cope with dynamically changing emergencies.Based on the reliability of the emergency dispatch system,this paper adopts a horizontal dispatch strategy to meet the emergency needs of the affected sites,which is of great significance to shorten the overall dispatch time of materials,reduce the total cost of emergency dispatch,improve the material satisfaction rate of the affected sites,coordinate the resource imbalance between regions,fully guarantee the supply of emergency materials in a timely manner,and improve the reliability of the dispatch system,while making the dispatch of emergency materials more global and At the same time,it makes the dispatching of emergency supplies more global and comprehensive,and provides decision support for managers to make the optimal dispatching plan subsequently.The research work of this paper is divided into four aspects as follows:(1)The problem of emergency material dispatching is summarized and outlined.Firstly,it discusses the connotation and demand characteristics of emergency material dispatching,and sorts out the theories and methods related to system reliability;then it analyzes and outlines the key methods and horizontal dispatching strategies for the reliability of emergency material dispatching system.(2)To address the problem of emergency dispatch reliability,we analyze the influencing factors and indicators of emergency material dispatch,establish a GO-Bayesian-based reliability analysis network model,and analyze the weak points of the emergency material dispatch system.By analyzing the workflow of the emergency material dispatching system and combining GO method with Bayesian network,the model mapping is transformed and the reliability of the dispatching system is studied;then the weak links of the system are reasoned out in reverse by fault injection and visualized for sensitivity analysis,which provides the basis for subsequent model research.(3)For the identified weak link of the dispatching system,the material distribution subsystem,the horizontal dispatching strategy is introduced and the horizontal dispatching model of emergency materials is constructed to determine the most effective dispatching plan.By analyzing the feasibility and modeling elements of the deployment of the horizontal dispatching strategy,the fuzzy demand problem under uncertain conditions such as uneven distribution of emergency materials and sudden changes in demand caused by derived disasters is predicted by using triangular fuzzy numbers,and a mathematical model that minimizes the overall cost and time of emergency dispatching and maximizes the satisfaction rate of materials is established considering the horizontal dispatching of materials.(4)Apply the genetic algorithm to solve the multi-objective emergency material dispatching model to find the optimal solution,and give the dispatching plan considering the horizontal dispatching of materials.The example of emergency material dispatching after the Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan is used to verify that the emergency dispatching scheme with the introduction of the horizontal dispatching strategy of materials has higher flexibility and effectiveness in real situations.