| As a major agricultural country,agriculture issues are fundamental issues concerning the people’s livelihood.Because of the essential characteristics of agricultural prices,it is always accompanied by natural risk and market risk,which also leads to the sensitivity of agricultural development in our country and the weak position of farmers.Under the new situation of market-oriented agricultural product pricing mechanism,how to manage the price risk of agricultural products more effectively,protect the interests of farmers,and maintain the stability of Chinese agricultural market is the core subject of "three rural issues".The "insurance +futures" model came into being under this new situation.It has been included in the No.1 Central Document for seven consecutive years since it was first proposed in2016.Now the innovative model of "insurance + futures" is playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing the market price of agricultural products and ensuring farmers’ income.At the same time,corn,as one of the three food crops in our country,plays a pivotal role in the agricultural product market.It has a very important guiding function to actively explore the management mode to stabilize the corn crop price and ensure the income of corn farmers.Therefore,this paper takes "insurance + futures +basis purchase" of maize covered by county area in Shuangyang District of Jilin Province as an example to conduct in-depth analysis and research on this model.By sorting out the project process and analyzing the cost and benefit of each participant,this paper explores the positive role of this model in the diversification of agricultural price risk and its income guarantee effect on farmers.Firstly,this paper reviews and expounds domestic and foreign literature on agricultural product price risk management.Through the analysis of the previous scholars,"insurance + futures" mode has become the mainstream mode of agricultural product price risk management.Then,this paper analyzes the current situation of Chinese corn industry from the perspective of supply and demand and price trend,and analyzes the natural risk and the risk of price fluctuation of corn in Jilin province through the cycle theory of concrete data,and explains the necessity of "insurance + futures" pilot project falling in Jilin province.Then,from the perspective of project subject,operation process,insurance and option product design,this paper makes a detailed analysis and exploration of the specific implementation process of the "insurance + futures + basis purchase" project covering corn in Shuangyang County,Jilin Province,as well as the cost and benefits of each participant by virtue of GARCH model,Monte Carlo simulation option pricing principle and Delta dynamic hedging theory.Through analysis,it is found that the mode of "insurance + futures + basis purchase" can effectively stabilize the price of agricultural products,guarantee the income of farmers and guarantee the sales price and channel to a certain extent.However,due to the late start of the pilot and research of the mode of "insurance +futures",there are still many problems in the operation process,such as low participation of social funds and insufficient security.There are still some problems,such as high hedging cost,insufficient liquidity of options on the floor,imperfect risk management mode and risk exposure.This paper analyzes and explains the existing problems and puts forward some policy suggestions to provide reference for the further development of this model. |
