Research On Soybean Price Risk Management Model Based On "Insurance+Futures"

The price of agricultural products is closely linked to national food security and social stability,and has always been the focus of close attention at all levels.China's futures exchanges have been constantly exploring new models for the futures market to serve the real economy.In 2016,the “No.1 Document” of the Central Government officially proposed the “Insurance + Futures” model,which successfully opened up a new path to serve “three rural issues”,“Insurance + Futures”.The model is an important measure to improve China's agricultural risk management system,and is of great significance in improving China's agricultural development level and ensuring the basic income of farmers in China.In 2017,Dalian Commodity Exchange launched 32 “Insurance + Futures” pilot projects nationwide.In addition to the scale of the pilot and the continuous expansion of the region,it also innovatively launched a new model for large-scale leading enterprises to help farmers operate.Jilin Yuntianhua is one of the pilot projects of “Insurance + Futures”.The pilot project successfully helped farmers to effectively avoid the risk of soybean price fluctuations,and has a positive effect on increasing farmers' income and accelerating China's agricultural modernization process.There are large economic and social effects,and large-scale agricultural enterprises and financial institutions participate in agricultural risks.The important attempts and major initiatives of management have provided new ideas for the “Insurance + Futures” model.Therefore,this article takes Jilin Yuntianhua “Insurance + Futures” pilot project model which successfully transfer soybean price fluctuation risk to the capital market as an example,and discuss the important role which Jilin Yuntianhua “Insurance + Futures” new model played in agricultural product price risk management.This paper first summarizes the existing literature,and defines related concepts,and sorts out the relevant theories needed for subsequent research.Secondly,it analyzes the development status of China's soybean industry,and uses spider web theory to analyze the risk of soybean price fluctuation faced by soybean farmers and soybean processing enterprises,and explains the necessity of the “Insurance + Futures” model and the progress of the current pilot work.Third,from the participation subject,operation mode,insurance product design,OTC option product design and hedging strategy,etc.,refine and systematically analyze the specific design and implementation process of Jilin Yuntianhua “Insurance + Futures” pilot project.Finally,the GARCH model is used to measure the fluctuation law of soybean futures price,which confirms the rationality of the product selection of the pilot project.Further,objective evaluation of the Jilin Yuntianhua pilot project was carried out in multiple dimensions from the options pricing method and the implementation effect of the pilot project.The research in this paper provides theoretical support for Jilin Yuntianhua “Insurance + Futures” risk management model,and also provides specific recommendations for the promotion and optimization of this model.