Power Sustainable Development Research Based On Ecological Carrying Capacity

With the aim of achieving electric power sustainable development, and based on the constraint of ecological carrying capacity and natural environment, socio-economic development, natural resource development and power development status, the demand and supply of resource consumed by electric power development are analyzed with applying the ecological footprint theory, analyzes the results of Shanxi province as an example, seeks the measures to achieve electric power sustainable development. The main contents and results are divided into the following sections.First, this paper analyzes the relationships among the economy, resources, environment subsystems and the power system; Establishes the evaluation index system and coordination degree model on the base of investigation of the power industry's internal and external environment; Makes a calculation example analysis using Shanxi Province as a numerical example.Second, through analyzing the theory of the existing ecological footprint computation model, this paper puts forward the concept of electricity ecological footprint, combining with the specific situation of the power industry, and constructs an electricity consumption account about resources and environment from three segments: power generation supply, use and so on. On this basis, the ecological footprint model was established and the concept of impact factor transmission corridor was proposed in order to modify the ecological footprint calculation about the area of land occupied by the transmission line. Then this paper estimates the ecological footprint of Shanxi province.Third, the thesis focuses on the establishment of power ecological carrying capacity calculation model based on the research of power ecological footprint model. According to the concept of ecological carrying capacity, combined with the specific circumstances of the power industry, the ratio of electricity consumption accounts for energy consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP is proposed to represent the ecological carrying capacity share of power industry in the entire ecosystem, hydroelectric power ecological carrying calculation model is amend; On this basis, a power calculation model of ecological carrying capacity is established and power industry in Shanxi Province as an example makes a numerical example.Fourth, to search for the more suitable power development model, empirical mode decomposition method and kinetic theory is applied to establish power ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity prediction model and use Shanxi as an example to predict and comparative analyze the sustainability of power development under three modes of shepherd boy economic, ecological threshold constraint economic, universe spacecraft economic.Fifth, based on the energy-saving and emission reduction targets for 2020 that drafted by our government, power sustainable development planning model is established under dual targets of energy saving and emission reduction firstly, then the power production, electricity production and residents power consumption optimization model of energy conservation assessment are given in which the paper focused on energy saving and emission reduction of power production, and established the replacement power optimization model under dual goals of energy saving and emission reduction. The power development plan object of 2009-2020 are given by analyzes shanxi province, and coordination between power and economic, resources, environment is given based on the analysis of planning object finally.Sixth, In order to help achieve power sustainable development, the paper brought out corresponding policy recommendations from four aspects including environment, economy, resources and power based on the front research.